Analytics
Yes is at 98.8%, up 72 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 2 Dec 2025.
Across the 304 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.6% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7% on 6 Dec 2025. The current quote, 98.8%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 97.9% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 98.2%; a month before, 86.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 88% on 26 Sep 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”.
$8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $340.34K since listing. The order book holds $3.73K, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $33.22K bought Yes and $4K bought No; the largest was a $8.11K buy of Yes at 67.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Giannis2026 with 6K shares; the largest No position is RememberAmalek with 3.8K. Ten wallets hold 65.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 304 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2025 | 26.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 97.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis2026 | Yes | 6.02K |
| RememberAmalek | No | 3.79K |
| cowcat | Yes | 3.3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026
| Miojinho |
| No |
| 2.68K |
| Ricpb | No | 2.26K |
| fElon | Yes | 2.23K |
| Rr55 | No | 2.02K |
| Nobody23041 | Yes | 1.23K |
| holygagi | No | 1.06K |
| Elias.Thornwell | Yes | 885.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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