Analytics
Yes is at 19.5%, down 31 points from 50% when the market opened on 24 Jan 2026.
Across the 244 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (36 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 8% on 4 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25%; a month before, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 43% on 25 Jan 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”.
$24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $220.8K since listing. The order book holds $1.31K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.63K bought Yes and $10.24K bought No; the largest was a $1.26K sell of No at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Unlucky-Anywhere-Destruction with 5.3K shares; the largest No position is fElon with 3.7K. Ten wallets hold 68% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 19.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Unlucky-Anywhere-Destruction | Yes | 5.25K |
| fElon | No | 3.69K |
| Hakei. | No | 2.53K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026
| Rr55 |
| No |
| 2.38K |
| RobClive | Yes | 2.34K |
| gmeowcl | No | 2.29K |
| VincentWright2057 | No | 2.06K |
| eNakeVets | Yes | 1.96K |
| Coral Vector 08BD | Yes | 1.56K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 1.53K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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