Analytics
Yes is at 56.5%, up 11 points from 45.5% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 75% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 20% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 70%. Its largest one-day move was 42 points up, to 62% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”.
$305 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $61.1K since listing. The order book holds $373.26, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 116 trades, $1.71K bought Yes and $8.93K bought No; the largest was a $2.87K buy of No at 29.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Y4n4pol with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is fElon with 685. Ten wallets hold 92% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 56.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026
| Solar Lynx EC36 |
| No |
| 553.5 |
| LosingEverything12312312323123 | Yes | 480.64 |
| geowatch | Yes | 376.7 |
| lucid-for15min-NEXUS-amused-flipper | No | 100 |
| Unlucky-Anywhere-Destruction | Yes | 100 |
| St3f | Yes | 90 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 87.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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