Analytics
Yes is at 3.9%, down 12 points from 15.5% when the market opened on 7 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 15.5% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.3% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.2%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 9% on 8 Oct 2026.
$63.05 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $125.07K since listing. The order book holds $6.78K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 444 trades, $4.65K bought Yes and $27.63K bought No; the largest was a $6.63K buy of No at 88.7¢.
The largest Yes position is taketwobruw with 9.8K shares; the largest No position is forinnerpsandr1x11222 with 26.2K. Ten wallets hold 68.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 9:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 7 Oct 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 3.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| forinnerpsandr1x11222 | No | 26.18K |
| taketwobruw | Yes | 9.83K |
| Informal-Floozie | Yes | 5.55K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak. Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution source for this market will be the WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad
| Bright Beacon 4BCE | No | 4.79K |
| MtnMark | Yes | 4.07K |
| Talophex | No | 3.5K |
| Violet Vector 6350 | Yes | 2.61K |
| bazooka1 | No | 2.6K |
| jerryyang88 | Yes | 2.6K |
| GonzaloRF | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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