Venezuela prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on Venezuela and sorts it into who leads the country, the opposition and any election, and what the United States does. The lead market prices each named figure as the leader at the end of the year, and it has been one of the most traded political markets on the venue.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Leadership markets turn on definitions. One contract asks who holds the office, another who holds power in fact, and the two can name different people for months. The rules on each market page say which source decides, and that wording is usually where the two prices part ways.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.