Nicolás Maduro: Up 11 points in a week, 6.2× a normal week for this contract. 7 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Up 11 points in a week, 6.2× a normal week for this contract. 7 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 3.5 points in 24 hours, 7.0× its normal daily swing. Down 7.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 72% | 92% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 25% | 7.5% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 91¢/92¢ | $33.2K, $37.5K | 92¢+0.0 | 93¢+0.4 |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 7.0¢/8¢ | $4.8K, $6.9K | 8.8¢+0.8 | 10.0¢+2.0 |
| No Head of State | 0.4¢/0.6¢ | $689, $129 | 3.3¢+2.7 | 11¢+10 |
| María Corina Machado | 0.3¢/0.4¢ | $78, $218 | 2.2¢+1.8 | 7.8¢+7.4 |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1¢/0.2¢ | $187, $322 | 0.84¢+0.6 | 5.7¢+5.5 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-11-05 09:33 UTC
Down 6.5 points in a week, 4.9× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 11 points in a week, 6.5× a normal week for this contract. 7 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 3.5 points in 24 hours, 7.0× its normal daily swing. Down 7.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 6.0 points in 24 hours, 9.2× its normal daily swing. Up 11 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.2× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 5.5 points in a week, 4.2× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 11 points in a week, 6.2× a normal week for this contract. 6 days running in the same direction.
Down 4.5 points in a week, 3.4× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 4.0 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 9.3 points in a week, 5.4× a normal week for this contract. 6 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 6.6 points in a week, 4.1× a normal week for this contract. 6 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 4.2 points in a week, 2.4× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 5.5 points in a week, 4.2× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 5.5 points in a week, 4.2× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 3.2 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract.
Down 5.5 points in a week, 4.2× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 9.1 points in a week, 5.3× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 10 points in a week, 7.6× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 8.3 points in a week, 5.2× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 8.0 points in a week, 6.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 8.0 points in a week, 5.0× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 9.5 points in a week, 7.2× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 6.6 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 4.5× a normal week for this contract.
Up 7.6 points in a week, 4.4× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
On Polymarket, “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” has Nicolás Maduro in front at 92%, on $119K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. That market pays on whoever officially holds the office of head of state on 31 December, as the Venezuelan government states it or, failing that, as the United Nations lists it. It does not pay on who governs in fact, which the separate de facto leader market on this page prices. This room reads 66 open markets across 16 Polymarket events, which together traded $161K over the same 24 hours and hold $3.8M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 5 Nov 2026, 09:33 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 92% | — | — | $34.3K | $136K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| María Corina Machado | 73% | — | — | $17.4K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 1.8% | — | — | $16.0K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prison time | 57% | — | — | $502 | $36.7K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? | December 31 | $6.9M | 25 Oct 2026 |
| US forces enter Venezuela again by...? | June 30 | $3.1M | 30 Jun 2026 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by...? | December 31 | $2.7M | 13 Jun 2026 |
| Who will visit Venezuela by March 31? | Charles Myers | $62.0K |
The Venezuela room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on Venezuela and sorts it into who leads the country, the opposition and any election, and what the United States does. The lead market prices each named figure as the leader at the end of the year, and it has been one of the most traded political markets on the venue.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
Leadership markets turn on definitions. One contract asks who holds the office, another who holds power in fact, and the two can name different people for months. The rules on each market page say which source decides, and that wording is usually where the two prices part ways.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| Yes92¢No8.3¢ |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 7.5% | — | — | $27.0K | $174K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| No Head of State | <1% | — | — | $10.6K | $135K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99.5¢ |
| María Corina Machado | <1% | — | — | $8.6K | $168K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.35¢No99.65¢ |
| Marco Rubio | <1% | — | — | $8.6K | $222K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Frank Donovan | <1% | — | — | $8.4K | $263K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Edmundo González | <1% | — | — | $7.5K | $154K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | — | — | $7.5K | $255K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | — | — | $6.2K | $138K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Evan Pettus | <1% | — | — | $5 | $258K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 96% | — | — | $3.0K | $44.2K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes96¢No4.5¢ |
| María Corina Machado | 2.3% | — | — | $0 | $38.4K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 2.2% | — | — | $0 | $39.0K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes2.2¢No98¢ |
| Edmundo González | 1.3% | — | — | $0 | $31.8K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| No Head of State | <1% | — | — | $0 | $36.1K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| Donald Trump | <1% | — | — | $37 | $32.8K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.2¢No99.8¢ |
| Dinorah Figuera | <1% | — | — | $0 | $34.2K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.2¢No99.8¢ |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | — | — | $0 | $34.0K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Nicolás Maduro | <1% | — | — | $0 | $33.3K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | — | — | $0 | $33.5K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5.5% | — | — | $25 | $20.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | 1.8% | — | — | $0 | $16.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| $6.3K |
| 1 Jan 2030 |
| Yes73¢No27¢ |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 11% | — | — | $0 | $15.9K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 6.1% | — | — | $0 | $15.6K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes6.1¢No94¢ |
| Donald Trump | 2.9% | — | — | $0 | $17.1K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 2.8% | — | — | $0 | $5.4K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
| Henrique Capriles | 2.6% | — | — | $0 | $13.6K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Manuel Rosales | 2.6% | — | — | $0 | $13.4K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Edmundo González | 1.3% | — | — | $0 | $15.7K | 1 Jan 2030 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 31% | — | — | $479 | $22.5K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes31¢No70¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $16.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| November 30, 2026 | 3.8% | — | — | $0 | $10.9K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes3.8¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | 14% | — | — | $0 | $1.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| María Corina Machado arrested before 2027? | 7.0% | — | — | $0 | $11.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3.2% | — | — | $3.4K | $19.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.2¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2.4% | — | — | $164 | $72.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | 1.1% | — | — | $1 | $46.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Yes57¢No43¢ |
| 60+ | 27% | +2.5 | +5.0 | $387 | $41.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes27¢No74¢ |
| <20 | 5.3% | 0 | −3.3 | $164 | $43.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| 20–40 | 2.2% | +0.8 | −1.8 | $147 | $23.9K | 31 Dec 2027 | Yes2.2¢No98¢ |
| 40–60 | 2.1% | 0 | −2.9 | $174 | $26.7K | 31 Dec 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | 31% | −4.5 | −0.5 | $5 | $1.5K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes31¢No69¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2m | 57% | +3.0 | +1.0 | $0 | $248 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes57¢No43¢ |
| 1.3m | 14% | — | — | $0 | $384 | 28 Feb 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| 1.4m | 6.6% | 0 | −2.8 | $0 | $806 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes6.6¢No93¢ |
| 1.5m | 1.9% | 0 | −5.0 | $0 | $2.1K | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| 1.7m | 1.7% | 0 | −0.8 | $0 | $2.1K | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
| 2m | 1.5% | — | 0 | $0 | $3.7K | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6% | — | −1.5 | $0 | $11.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? | Yes | $75.4K | 25 Feb 2026 |
| How long will Trump and Machado shake hands for when they meet? | No Handshake | $409K | 17 Jan 2026 |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | $1.9M | 16 Jan 2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | $370K | 15 Jan 2026 |
| Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? | Yes | $599K | 11 Jan 2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by...? | January 10 | $126K | 9 Jan 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTCRead 5 Nov 2026, 09:33 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
91.8%
Market 91.8% · +0.0 pts
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