Analytics
Yes is at 1.6%, down 5.9 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
Across the 262 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (34 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 26 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 4 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.4%; a month before, 3.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8.8 points up, to 13.5% on 26 Apr 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?”.
$24.71 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16.75K since listing. The order book holds $3.14K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 258 trades, $294.48 bought Yes and $5.01K bought No; the largest was a $1.14K buy of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is planktonXD with 494 shares; the largest No position is 64MGX75VLQ with 600. Ten wallets hold 73.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 262 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 7.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 64MGX75VLQ | No | 599.91 |
| DeepMoneyValue | No | 495.82 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 493.93 |
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026
| Dr.mett |
| No |
| 477.36 |
| Amber Orbit 1869 | Yes | 209.5 |
| Foxhound-2026 | Yes | 200 |
| hithitfar | No | 192.49 |
| BillyBoy94 | No | 158.92 |
| simulacrum3 | Yes | 135.79 |
| Magis | Yes | 125 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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