Analytics
Yes is at 5.6%, down 6.4 points from 12% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
Across the 271 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%; a month before, 9.3%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 48.5% on 29 Apr 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?”.
$10.82K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.98K, with a 8.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 222 trades, $245.13 bought Yes and $4.92K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Deep-Fritter with 472 shares; the largest No position is Dr.mett with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 88.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 271 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 12.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dr.mett | No | 1.21K |
| Deep-Fritter | Yes | 472.06 |
| srbrb | Yes | 400 |
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026
| 64MGX75VLQ |
| No |
| 380.09 |
| zk1984 | No | 339.79 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 301.28 |
| 5atka | Yes | 200 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 128.98 |
| akunai | Yes | 100 |
| ThomVeldhuis10 | Yes | 63.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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