Analytics
Yes is at 56.5%, up 41 points from 15.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 292 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 5 Nov 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68% on 4 Nov 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 5 Jan 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 55.5%; a month before, 62.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 68% on 4 Nov 2026.
No prison time is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Maduro Prison Time?”, ahead of 60+ at 27%.
$451.91 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $633.5K since listing. The order book holds $34.07K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.96K bought Yes and $18.05K bought No; the largest was a $5.71K sell of No at 48.0¢.
The largest Yes position is inventive with 8.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 10.8K. Ten wallets hold 68.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 292 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 5 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 15.5% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 57.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10.81K |
| inventive | Yes | 8.3K |
| tgrdy | No | 5.82K |
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/maduro-prison-time-527
| 127983ads |
| No |
| 4.69K |
| paddaa | Yes | 4.38K |
| tourists | No | 3.46K |
| 0xdc3E831cad | Yes | 1.99K |
| thebloodangel | Yes | 1.81K |
| JackBluetooth | No | 1.47K |
| unsc | No | 1.19K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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