Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, about where the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the price held at 8.5%.
$863.23 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.4K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 28 trades, $29.02 bought Yes and $520.36 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 155 shares; the largest No position is doubleone2 with 170.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 2%–14%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| doubleone2 | No | 170 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 154.78 |
| IZinversion | No | 147.09 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if María Corina Machado is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/maria-corina-machado-arrested-before-2027
| Haradwaith |
| Yes |
| 102.51 |
| erFiodena | No | 47.61 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 42 |
| SakuraDevil | Yes | 40 |
| NotReallySure | Yes | 39.98 |
| Yeezuus | No | 38.76 |
| hfv | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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