Analytics
Yes is at 1.9%, down 10 points from 12% when the market opened on 4 Jan 2026.
Across the 281 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 5 Nov 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 7 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 5 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.3%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 24% on 9 Feb 2026.
$16.25K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $318.31K since listing. The order book holds $49.7K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $623.75 bought Yes and $34.09K bought No; the largest was a $13.21K buy of No at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Meaty-Bin with 18.4K shares; the largest No position is thoodr with 17.9K. Ten wallets hold 75.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 57 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 281 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 5 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 12.0% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 1.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Meaty-Bin | Yes | 18.39K |
| thoodr | No | 17.89K |
| Contestable-Parfait | No | 15.4K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by
| Anointed-Connect |
| Yes |
| 12.74K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 11.74K |
| TheEmprah | No | 9.72K |
| Pristine-Bunch | Yes | 7.2K |
| Silver Signal 8634 | No | 6.6K |
| AngryRhino | Yes | 5K |
| herewe | Yes | 4.44K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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