Analytics
Yes is at 4.7%, down 54 points from 58.5% when the market opened on 4 Jan 2026.
Across the 272 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 58.5% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 45.5% on 11 Sep 2026.
$342.56K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $18.67K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.15K bought Yes and $70.86K bought No; the largest was a $2.51K sell of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Jo7373 with 537 shares; the largest No position is thoodr with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 62.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 272 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 58.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thoodr | No | 3.2K |
| Gdub | No | 1.27K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/cilia-flores-released-from-custody-by
| No |
| 921.44 |
| TheEmprah | No | 556.01 |
| Jo7373 | Yes | 536.51 |
| Rapid Pioneer C617 | Yes | 459.65 |
| Bellan | Yes | 400.19 |
| RealRonnieTyler | Yes | 308.84 |
| eme10 | Yes | 300 |
| Coral Pioneer 40B8 | Yes | 292.14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
