Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 20:56 UTC. The market pays on the candidate who wins the election, on a consensus of credible reporting, or on official results from the City of Los Angeles if they are unclear.
Nithya Raman: Down 1.6 points on the day, against a week that ran up 3.8: 1.9× its normal daily swing, the other way. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Down 1.6 points on the day, against a week that ran up 3.8: 1.9× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 1.5 points on the day, against a week that ran down 3.5: 1.5× its normal daily swing, the other way.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 58% | 54% |
| Karen Bass | 42% | 46% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 54¢/55¢ | $20.4K, $21.9K | 55¢+0.2 | 55¢+0.3 |
| Karen Bass | 45¢/47¢ | $11.4K, $8.3K | 47¢+0.0 | 49¢+1.5 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-10-27 20:49 UTC
Down 4.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Up 4.4 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract.
Up 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 3.0: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 3.4: 2.4× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 3.4: 2.4× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
The name Polymarket priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the runoff. The result is filled in when the market resolves.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
User reads of each candidate's English Wikipedia article, 27 Sep 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (30 days), beside “Los Angeles Mayoral Election”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 27 Oct 2026
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 54% | — | — | $49.3K | $179K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raman 0-4% | 22% | — | — | $115 |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory? | Bass 5–10% | $220K | 27 Jun 2026 |
| LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner? | Karen Bass | $830K | 11 Jun 2026 |
| LA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place? | Nithya Raman | $861K | 9 Jun 2026 |
| LA Mayoral Election: Who will advance to the 2nd round? | Bass & Raman |
Each recorded move in the Los Angeles Mayoral Election 2026 room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Down 4.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 4.4 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 3.0: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
This room reads Polymarket's markets on the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election: the winner market, priced for the sitting mayor, Karen Bass, and for Councilmember Nithya Raman, and the side markets on the margin. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
The race went to a runoff because no candidate passed 50% in the June primary, where a third candidate, Spencer Pratt, took a quarter of the vote. Where his voters go decides the runoff, and Los Angeles counts mail ballots for weeks, so the margin on election night can move after it.
| Yes54¢No46¢ |
| Karen Bass | 46% | — | — | $4.1K | $108K | — | Yes46¢No54¢ |
| 4 Nov 2026 |
| Yes22¢No79¢ |
| Bass 0-4% | 19% | — | — | $31 | $1.8K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| Raman 8-12% | 14% | — | — | $29 | $17.2K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Raman 4-8% | 14% | — | — | $43 | $16.4K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| Bass 4-8% | 11% | — | — | $0 | $13.8K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Bass 8-12% | 9.8% | — | — | $0 | $2.0K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes9.8¢No90¢ |
| Raman 12-16% | 9.5% | — | — | $0 | $2.1K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| Raman 20+% | 7.1% | — | — | $127 | $2.2K | 4 Nov 2026 | Yes7.1¢No93¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? | 24% | — | — | $0 | $118 | 1 Nov 2027 | Yes24¢No76¢ |
| 9 Jun 2026 |
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 3.4: 2.4× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 3.4: 2.4× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
