Analytics
Yes is at 22%, down 16 points from 37.5% when the market opened on 26 Sep 2026.
Across the 28 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37.5% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 21%; a month before, 17.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 17.5% on 27 Sep 2026.
It is one of 12 markets under “LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?”.
$115.35 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.91K since listing. The order book holds $13.14K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 239 trades, $575.69 bought Yes and $2.21K bought No.
The largest Yes position is lucid-for15min-NEXUS-amused-flipper with 630 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 94.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 10:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 37.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 22.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.22K |
| lucid-for15min-NEXUS-amused-flipper | Yes | 630.36 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 143.05 |
The general runoff election for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the November 3, 2026 general runoff election for Mayor of Los Angeles. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/la-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory
| BTCisaHarshMistress | Yes | 121.13 |
| lightsout912 | Yes | 89.99 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 80.05 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 60 |
| cigarettes | No | 50.95 |
| gaaaydoggggg | Yes | 40.19 |
| neverhackme | Yes | 36.62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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