Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: +0.7 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 3.1¢/3.4¢ | $758, $1.2K | 4.2¢+0.8 | 12¢+8.6 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-11-05 09:33 UTC
Up 1.4 points in 24 hours, 3.4× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.4× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 0.8 points on the day, against a week that ran down 1.5: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 3.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 2.1 points in 24 hours, 5.3× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.6× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.4 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Down 1.7 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.1 points in a week, 1.1× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.1× its normal daily swing.
Down 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.9× its normal daily swing. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 1.8 points in a week, 1.7× a normal week for this contract.
Up 0.8 points on the day, against a week that ran down 2.1: 1.9× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 1.7 points in a week, 1.6× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.5 points on the day, against a week that ran down 1.1: 3.8× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 1.6 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 0.7 points on the day, against a week that ran down 1.7: 1.7× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 2.5 points in a week, 2.4× a normal week for this contract.
Down 1.9 points in a week, 1.7× a normal week for this contract.
Down 2.4 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 2.1 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 2.2 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Down 2.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.
On Polymarket, “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?” trades at 3.3%, on $64.4K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. On 15 September 2026 the Senate voted 49–50 on cloture on the motion to proceed to the bill, short of the 60 needed to begin debate (roll call 234). That was a procedural vote, not a vote on passage, and it settled none of these markets. This room reads 25 open markets across 4 Polymarket events, which together traded $76.4K over the same 24 hours and hold $332K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 5 Nov 2026, 09:33 UTC.
The dated record behind the Clarity Act markets, each entry sourced and read against what the lead market's rules count. Newest first.
Ending debate on the motion to take up H.R. 3633 needed three fifths of the Senate, 60 votes. It got 49 Yeas and 50 Nays, with Senator Coons not voting. Republicans Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis voted Nay and no Democrat voted Yea. This was a vote on whether to begin debate, not on passage: the senator markets count only the first final-passage vote, and the Senate-passage and signed-into-law markets need later steps.
Source: US Senate, roll call vote 234, 119th Congress, 2nd sessionSenator Tillis voted Nay so that he could make a motion to reconsider, which he did right after the vote. It keeps the cloture question available to be called again; it does not schedule a vote.
Source: US Senate Daily Press, floor log for 15 September 2026| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 3.3% | — | — | $64.4K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thom Tillis | 7.5% | — | — | $260 |
Each recorded move in the Clarity Act room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Up 1.4 points in 24 hours, 3.4× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.4× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 0.8 points on the day, against a week that ran down 1.5: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633: the US bill that would split oversight of crypto between the SEC and the CFTC and set the rules for when a token stops being a security. It shows whether traders expect it to be signed, how they price the Senate vote, and which senators they expect to vote for it.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A bill becomes law in steps, and each step is its own contract here. The House passed H.R. 3633 on 17 July 2025, 294–134. On 15 September 2026 the Senate failed the first procedural step, cloture on the motion to proceed, 49–50 against the 60 votes needed to begin debate. The Senate must still take the bill up and pass the same text, or the two chambers must reconcile their versions, before anything reaches the President. A market on Senate passage can therefore sit well above a market on the bill becoming law by a date: the second needs every remaining step to land inside the deadline.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
The House of Representatives passed the Clarity Act with 294 Yeas, 134 Nays and 4 not voting. A bill becomes law only after both chambers pass the same text and the President signs it, so the House vote settles none of the markets here on its own.
Source: Clerk of the US House, roll call 199, 2025| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | 7.8% | — | — | $6.9K | $9.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.8¢No92¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| John Fetterman | 7.3% | — | — | $0 | $22.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.3¢No93¢ |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 7.0% | — | — | $46 | $9.7K | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 7.0% | — | — | $0 | $18.7K | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| Raphael Warnock | 7.0% | — | — | $0 | $14.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 6.9% | — | — | $2.1K | $4.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.9¢No93¢ |
| Mark Warner | 6.6% | — | — | $279 | $12.6K | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes6.6¢No93¢ |
| Jacky Rosen | 6.3% | — | — | $544 | $20.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.3¢No94¢ |
| Andy Kim | 6.2% | — | — | $454 | $10.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.2¢No94¢ |
| Mike Lee | 6.0% | — | — | $40 | $14.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.0¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 58 | 13% | — | — | $0 | $503 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Above 64 | 12% | — | — | $0 | $354 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| Above 62 | 11% | — | — | $0 | $363 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Above 55 | 11% | — | — | $0 | $499 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Above 60 | 8.5% | — | — | $13 | $360 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Above 68 | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $333 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No92¢ |
| Above 66 | 7.3% | — | — | $0 | $331 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes7.3¢No93¢ |
| Above 50 | 5.5% | — | — | $0 | $308 | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 3.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 2.1 points in 24 hours, 5.3× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.6× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 1.4 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 2 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTCRead 5 Nov 2026, 09:33 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
13.4%
Market 13.4% · +0.0 pts
Your scenario, not a Vultax forecast.
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