Clarity Act prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633: the US bill that would split oversight of crypto between the SEC and the CFTC and set the rules for when a token stops being a security. It shows whether traders expect it to be signed, how they price the Senate vote, and which senators they expect to vote for it.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

A bill becomes law in steps, and each step is its own contract here. The House passed H.R. 3633 in July 2025. The Senate must pass the same text, or the two chambers must reconcile their versions, before anything reaches the President. A market on Senate passage can therefore sit well above a market on the bill becoming law by a date: the second needs every remaining step to land inside the deadline.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.