Analytics
Yes is at 3.6%, down 46 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 86 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 17 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.2%; a month before, 5.1%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 23.5% on 31 Jul 2026.
Mark Warner ranks 13th of the 15 outcomes in “Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?”. Thom Tillis leads at 10.5%; Kirsten Gillibrand is at 9%.
$3.09K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $72.74K since listing. The order book holds $7.57K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 454 trades, $1.98K bought Yes and $4.3K bought No.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 468 shares; the largest No position is pantomime with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 78.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 86 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 3.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pantomime | No | 1.21K |
| title1 | No | 569.9 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 467.93 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658
2 more outcomes, none above 2.9%.
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 433.91 |
| thursdays | Yes | 200 |
| kittycat67 | No | 200 |
| limearbs | Yes | 164.66 |
| Emerald Ledger 40C6 | Yes | 156.96 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 143.95 |
| Digital-Boy | No | 123.49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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