Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Up 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.0× its normal daily swing. Up 2.0 on the week.
Up 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.5 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 27% | 27% |
| Mark Carney | 16% | 17% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8.5% | 16% |
| Donald Trump | 11% | 8.5% |
| Dario Amodei | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| Marco Rubio | 3.5% | 6.4% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 25¢/28¢ | $726, $882 | 29¢+0.7 | 57¢+29 |
| Mark Carney | 16¢/17¢ | $18, $31 | 49¢+32 | 80¢+63 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 14¢/17¢ | $42, $151 | 31¢+14 | 58¢+41 |
| Donald Trump | 8¢/10¢ | $85, $98 | 34¢+24 | 55¢+45 |
| Dario Amodei | 6.3¢/7.3¢ | $26, $80 | 28¢+21 | 57¢+49 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
On Polymarket, “TIME Person of the Year 2026” has Zohran Mamdani in front at 27%, on $3.1K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 28 open markets across 1 Polymarket event, which together traded $3.1K over the same 24 hours and hold $847K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC.
Each row is one settled Polymarket market on Time's Person of the Year: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the result was known, and the eventual winner's own price at the same moments.
The day-before favourite won 1 of 2 choices scored here; the eventual result traded at 79.5% on average that day.
User reads of each name's English Wikipedia article, 27 Sep 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (30 days), beside “TIME Person of the Year 2026”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 27% | — | — | $115 | $41.5K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time 2025 Person of the Year | Architects of AI / Other | $55M | 16 Dec 2025 |
| Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? | Yes | $1.9M | 14 Dec 2025 |
| What day will Time 2025 Person of the Year be released? | December 11 | $968K | 12 Dec 2025 |
| Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? | Yes |
The Time Person of the Year room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on Time magazine's Person of the Year: the main question, priced name by name, and the side markets on the shortlist and on whether the choice leaks before it is published. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
Time's editors choose the person, group or idea that most influenced the news of the year, for better or worse, so the market is a read on one editorial decision, not a vote. It trades through the year and moves most in the weeks before the December issue, when the shortlist is published.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 27 Oct 2026
| 31 Dec 2026 |
| Yes27¢No74¢ |
| Mark Carney | 17% | — | — | $25 | $4.9K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes17¢No84¢ |
| Pope Leo XIV | 16% | — | — | $276 | $41.5K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes16¢No85¢ |
| Donald Trump | 9% | — | — | $75 | $38.8K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes9¢No91¢ |
| Dario Amodei | 6.8% | — | — | $0 | $31.3K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes6.8¢No93¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 6.5% | — | — | $25 | $32.1K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 6% | — | — | $20 | $33.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Elon Musk | 6% | — | — | $0 | $57.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Artificial Intelligence | 5.8% | — | — | $708 | $37.9K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes5.8¢No94¢ |
| Reid Wiseman | 5.1% | — | — | $0 | $30.0K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Victor Glover | 5.0% | — | — | $0 | $32.1K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes5.0¢No95¢ |
| Christina Koch | 4.7% | — | — | $0 | $33.2K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4.7% | — | — | $0 | $5.2K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4.1% | — | — | $0 | $35.9K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes4.1¢No96¢ |
| 11 Dec 2025 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
