Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 4.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 4.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 4.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 4.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Lai | 5.5% | 11% |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 5.5% | 11% |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 8.7% | 10% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 8.0% | 10% |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 5.5% | 8.0% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 2.1% | 8.0% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Lai | 10¢/11¢ | $28, $393 | 24¢+13 | 66¢+55 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 10¢/11¢ | $32, $381 | 24¢+13 | 66¢+55 |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 10¢/11¢ | $160, $173 | 33¢+22 | 71¢+61 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 9¢/11¢ | $93, $102 | 32¢+21 | 73¢+62 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 7.0¢/9¢ | $11, $232 | 28¢+19 | 71¢+62 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-11-14 21:33 UTC
Up 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. Volume is 3.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 2.5: 5.0× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 2.6× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 18 points on the day, against a week that ran up 8.5: more than 20× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 5.0 points in 24 hours, 10.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 8.0 points in 24 hours, more than 20× its normal daily swing. Up 9.0 on the week.
On Polymarket, “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027” has Jimmy Lai in front at 11%, on $364 traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 17 open markets across 1 Polymarket event, which together traded $364 over the same 24 hours and hold $723K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 14 Nov 2026, 21:36 UTC.
Each row is one Nobel prize Polymarket ran a winner market on: the name priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the announcement, and the laureate's own price at the same moments. The open cycle is read live until its result is in.
The day-before favourite lost all three prizes scored here; the eventual result traded at 8.8% on average that day.
User reads of each leading name's English Wikipedia article, 15 Oct 2026 to 13 Nov 2026 (30 days), beside “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Lai | 11% | — | — | $22 |
A screen, not an accusation: how the 2025 winner's price moved in the hours before the announcement, beside what the Norwegian Nobel Institute said. Newest first.
The Committee's permanent secretary told Reuters it had not been able to determine exactly what happened or who was behind the breach, but that the digital domain was still the main suspect. One of Norway's three intelligence agencies took part in the inquiry; whether the aim was profit or damage to the prize's credibility was not known, and the Institute's work had turned to preventing future breaches.
Source: Reuters (via CP24), 30 Jan 2026On Polymarket's winner market, María Corina Machado traded at 3.7% at 22:00 UTC on 9 October 2025 and at 72.8% at midnight UTC, nine hours before the Committee named her at 11:00 in Oslo. Her English Wikipedia article was read 1,301 times on 9 October and 681,717 times on the 10th: the price moved before public attention did. The Institute opened an inquiry the same day, and its director later called espionage highly likely.
Source: CBS News / AFP, 13 Oct 2025; prices from Polymarket's price history; reads from WikimediaEach recorded move in the Nobel Prize room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Up 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. Volume is 3.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 2.5: 5.0× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 2.6× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
This room separates open Polymarket markets on the Nobel prizes from the historical cycles covered below. Each historical row compares the favourite 30 days, 7 days and one day before the announcement with the laureate's price at those same moments; missing observations stay unavailable.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A Nobel market is unusual in two ways. The real field is secret: nominations are sealed for 50 years, so the names Polymarket lists are its own choice plus the nominations nominators announced themselves. And the decision is taken by a few people well before it is announced, which makes the last hours before an announcement the part of the price history most worth reading. This page puts public attention, measured as Wikipedia reads of each leading name, beside the price for that reason.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 14 Nov 2026
| 1 Apr 2028 |
| Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 11% | — | — | $0 | $37.2K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 10% | — | — | $0 | $35.8K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 10% | — | — | $0 | $34.5K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 8% | — | — | $0 | $40.3K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes8¢No92¢ |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8.0% | — | — | $0 | $35.3K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes8.0¢No92¢ |
| UNRWA | 8.0% | — | — | $0 | $35.1K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes8.0¢No92¢ |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 7.8% | — | — | $0 | $38.5K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes7.8¢No92¢ |
| Donald Trump | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $146K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Melania Trump | 6.9% | — | — | $342 | $24.9K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes6.9¢No93¢ |
| International Criminal Court | 6.5% | — | — | $0 | $35.5K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Julian Assange | 4.5% | — | — | $0 | $37.4K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes4.5¢No95¢ |
| International Court of Justice | 4.5% | — | — | $0 | $29.3K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| António Guterres | 3.3% | — | — | $0 | $35.0K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Elon Musk | 3.1% | — | — | $0 | $48.2K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Doctors Without Borders | 2.9% | — | — | $0 | $35.2K | 1 Apr 2028 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
Down 18 points on the day, against a week that ran up 8.5: more than 20× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 5.0 points in 24 hours, 10.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.