Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Down 5.8 points in a week, 3.7× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.3 points on the day, against a week that ran down 3.3: 2.4× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 2.6 points in 24 hours, 6.4× its normal daily swing.
Trade Nobel Prize on paper, free
A free account gives you a practice balance at live Polymarket prices, a portfolio that marks itself, and Vi on every market. No card.
Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 22% | 15% |
| UNRWA | 4.3% | 6.8% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Save the Children | 19% | 5.5% |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 18% | 5.3% |
| International Court of Justice | 2.9% | 4.8% |
The order book behind “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 15¢/16¢ | $460 · $762 | 17¢+1.3 | |
| UNRWA | 5.9¢/6.8¢ | $84 · $179 | 20¢+13 | |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 5¢/7.0¢ | $449 · $1.3K | 7.2¢+0.2 | |
| Save the Children | 5.2¢/5.7¢ | $46 · $117 | 11¢+5.2 | |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 4¢/5.4¢ | $6 · $12 | 47¢+41 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
6 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 25 Sep 2026.
8 earlier moves on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
On Polymarket, “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026” has Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms in front at 15%, on $45.9K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 71 open markets across 1 Polymarket event, which together traded $45.9K over the same 24 hours and hold $2.1M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Sep 2026, 09:53 UTC.
Each row is one Nobel prize Polymarket ran a winner market on: the name priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the announcement, and the laureate's own price at the same moments. The open cycle is read live until its result is in.
The day-before favourite lost all three prizes scored here; the eventual result traded at 8.8% on average that day.
User reads of each leading name's English Wikipedia article, 28 Aug 2026 to 26 Sep 2026 (30 days), beside “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
One price per name Polymarket lists; the Committee's own list of nominees stays sealed for 50 years
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 15% | +0.7 | 0 | $2.6K | $16.3K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| UNRWA |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
A screen, not an accusation: how the 2025 winner's price moved in the hours before the announcement, beside what the Norwegian Nobel Institute said. Newest first.
The Committee's permanent secretary told Reuters it had not been able to determine exactly what happened or who was behind the breach, but that the digital domain was still the main suspect. One of Norway's three intelligence agencies took part in the inquiry; whether the aim was profit or damage to the prize's credibility was not known, and the Institute's work had turned to preventing future breaches.
Source: Reuters (via CP24), 30 Jan 2026On Polymarket's winner market, María Corina Machado traded at 3.7% at 22:00 UTC on 9 October 2025 and at 72.8% at midnight UTC, nine hours before the Committee named her at 11:00 in Oslo. Her English Wikipedia article was read 1,301 times on 9 October and 681,717 times on the 10th: the price moved before public attention did. The Institute opened an inquiry the same day, and its director later called espionage highly likely.
Source: CBS News / AFP, 13 Oct 2025; prices from Polymarket's price history; reads from WikimediaThis room reads every open Polymarket market on the Nobel prizes, led by the Peace Prize, and keeps a scored record of every past cycle: the name the market priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the announcement, and what the laureate was priced at the same moments.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A Nobel market is unusual in two ways. The real field is secret: nominations are sealed for 50 years, so the names Polymarket lists are its own choice plus the nominations nominators announced themselves. And the decision is taken by a few people well before it is announced, which makes the last hours before an announcement the part of the price history most worth reading. This page puts public attention, measured as Wikipedia reads of each leading name, beside the price for that reason.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews · user reads of each English Wikipedia article · read 27 Sep 2026
| 6.2% |
| +1.9 |
| +0.5 |
| $592 |
| $46.5K |
| 1 Apr 2027 |
| Yes6.2¢No94¢ |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 6% | — | −1.5 | $562 | $64.3K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Save the Children | 5.5% | −0.9 | −6.0 | $863 | $15.7K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 5.0% | +1.4 | −2.4 | $75 | $2.2K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes5.0¢No95¢ |
| International Court of Justice | 4.9% | −0.8 | 0 | $725 | $37.1K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes4.9¢No95¢ |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 2.4% | +0.5 | +1.7 | $846 | $6.1K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| Donald Trump | 1.8% | 0 | −0.8 | $31.9K | $474K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1.8% | 0 | +0.9 | $3.9K | $66.1K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 1.8% | 0 | 0 | $622 | $87.4K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Chow Hang-tung | 1.8% | 0 | −0.8 | $97 | $4.2K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.4% | 0 | 0 | $56 | $63.9K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.3% | 0 | −0.7 | $0 | $101K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 1.1% | −6.9 | +0.9 | $1.3K | $4.4K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| António Guterres | <1% | 0 | 0 | $230 | $50.1K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| World Central Kitchen | <1% | 0 | 0 | $10 | $7.0K | 10 Oct 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
15 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
