Analytics
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
geopoliticsActive
Closes Apr 1, 2028 UTC
Yes
3.3%
No
96.7%
Yes costs 3.3¢No costs 96.7¢
24h Volume
$19.0K
Total volume
$19.0K
Liquidity
$35.1K
Closes
Apr 1, 2028 UTC
Topic roomNobel Prize
Where it stands
Yes is at 3.3%, down 2.7 points from 6% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 7% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.4%; a month before, 6%.
António Guterres ranks 14th of the 17 outcomes in “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027”. Jimmy Lai leads at 10.5%; Committee to Protect Journalists is at 10.5%.
The best bid and the best ask are 3.4% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 39 trades, $19 bought Yes and $8.63K bought No; the largest was a $8K buy of No at 95.3¢.
Ten wallets hold 96.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:39 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 6.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 3.3% |
All outcomes
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Largest holders
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on its written rules. Trading closes on 1 Apr 2028.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2027
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Nobel Prize
- Nominations that nominators announce themselves, the only public part of the field
- The Committee's recent choices: human rights defenders, press freedom and humanitarian work have each been recognised in the last decade
- Wars, ceasefires and peace deals in the months before the vote