Elon Musk Tweets prediction markets

This room reads Polymarket's markets on how many times Elon Musk posts on X. Each market names a window, usually seven days from noon to noon Eastern time and sometimes 48 hours or a calendar month, and splits the possible counts into brackets. Exactly one bracket pays when the window closes.

The count comes from Polymarket's own X tracker, the resolution source the rules name. Main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count; replies do not, except replies that appear on the main feed. A deleted post counts if it stayed up long enough for the tracker to capture it, about five minutes. If the tracker fails, the rules fall back to X itself.

The table above the boards is read from the same tracker: the count so far in every open window, the pace per day, where that pace would finish, and the count the bracket prices imply. As a window runs, every bracket below the running count settles at zero, so late in the week the market is only pricing how many more posts are left.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.