December 31: Down 6.5 points on the day, against a week that ran up 5.0: 6.5× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 3.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 6.5 points on the day, against a week that ran up 5.0: 6.5× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 3.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 9.5 points in a week, 2.4× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. Volume is 3.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 41% | 54% |
| December 31 | 7.5% | 19% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 52¢/55¢ | $1.1K, $987 | 56¢+0.7 | 81¢+26 |
| December 31 | 18¢/19¢ | $4.4K, $2.7K | 20¢+1.1 | 26¢+7.0 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-10-27 18:34 UTC
Down 6.5 points on the day, against a week that ran up 5.0: 6.5× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is 3.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 10.0 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 9.0: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 9.0 points in 24 hours, 6.0× its normal daily swing.
On Polymarket, “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?” has June 30, 2027 in front at 54%, on $77.8K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 22 open markets across 8 Polymarket events, which together traded $155K over the same 24 hours and hold $226K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 54% | — | — | $682 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30% | — | — | $77.1K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? | Yes | $36.6K | 1 Jul 2026 |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | Yes | $232K | 30 Jun 2026 |
The Supreme Court room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads Polymarket's markets on the US Supreme Court: retirements, vacancies and the next nominee, and whether the Court agrees to hear particular cases. One of them asks whether the Court takes a case on sports event contracts, the question at the centre of the state lawsuits against prediction markets.
A certiorari market settles when the Court grants review, which appears on its orders list; it does not need the case to be argued or decided. Retirement markets count an announcement, so a justice can be counted out before leaving the bench.
| 1 Jul 2027 |
| Yes54¢No47¢ |
| December 31 | 19% | — | — | $77.2K | $81.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | 14% | — | — | $23 | $12.6K | 2 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 14% | — | — | $0 | $4.7K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | $0 | $12.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Ho | 40% | — | — | $0 | $218 | 20 Jan 2029 | Yes40¢No60¢ |
| Gregory Katsas | 34% | — | — | $0 | $245 | 20 Jan 2029 | Yes34¢No66¢ |
| Aileen Cannon | 19% | — | — | $0 | $298 | 20 Jan 2029 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 19% | — | — | $0 | $108 | 20 Jan 2029 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| Amul Thapar | 17% | — | — | $0 | $296 | 20 Jan 2029 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Andrew Oldham | 13% | — | — | $0 | $338 | 20 Jan 2029 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes30¢No70¢ |
| October 31 | 1.8% | — | — | $18 | $12.9K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027? | 13% | — | — | $191 | $10.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? | 6.3% | — | — | $0 | $11.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.3¢No94¢ |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTCRead 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
53.5%
Market 53.5% · +0.0 pts
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