Analytics
Yes is at 30%, down 8 points from 38% when the market opened on 22 Jan 2026.
Across the 253 daily closes on record from 22 Jan 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 81.5% on 23 Feb 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 9 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 30%; a month before, 37%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 43% on 24 Feb 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?”.
$77.14K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $165.78K since listing. The order book holds $28.03K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is bernardbulletin with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is plumbis with 937. Ten wallets hold 58.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 253 points, 22 Jan 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | 38.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bernardbulletin | Yes | 1.76K |
| plumbis | No | 936.56 |
| Optimus- | Yes | 669.48 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026
| ammarb |
| Yes |
| 630.97 |
| daweishashax | No | 618.6 |
| lizzyb | No | 539.36 |
| predictgeek | No | 432 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 365.35 |
| BobbyBakedBeans | No | 355.03 |
| SiliconBets | Yes | 326.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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