Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
Across the 118 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 13.5% on 13 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?”.
$2.41K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.54K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 95 trades, $139.28 bought Yes and $1.07K bought No.
The largest Yes position is TRADER420 with 734 shares; the largest No position is elmcap2 with 828. Ten wallets hold 88.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-clarence-thomas-announce-his-retirement-byptptpt-20260701190627804
| Nadmi |
| Yes |
| 350.27 |
| SiliconBets | Yes | 204.74 |
| adasol | Yes | 157.84 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 80.87 |
| miya2016 | No | 78.96 |
| UntitledUser1 | No | 72 |
| iuH1398SI | No | 72 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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