Analytics
Yes is at 31%, down 14 points from 45% when the market opened on 2 Jul 2026.
Across the 119 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63% on 5 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5% on 1 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 5% on 1 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?”.
$120 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $10.46K since listing. The order book holds $4.45K, with a 28.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 40 trades, $72.1 bought Yes and $8.7K bought No; the largest was a $4.83K buy of No at 96.6¢.
The largest Yes position is Nadmi with 3.5K shares; the largest No position is Gaditima with 8.9K.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 45.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-clarence-thomas-announce-his-retirement-byptptpt-20260701190627804
| Rex416 |
| Yes |
| 625.71 |
| TRADER420 | Yes | 597.77 |
| balthazar | Yes | 400 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 329.19 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 240 |
| silverstud | Yes | 170 |
| M888 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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