Does the Polymarket favourite usually win a golf major?

The day-before favourite won 3 of 5 events scored here; the eventual result traded at 45.6% on average that day. Most recently, PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner: the day before, Scottie Scheffler led at 14.5% and lost to Ryan Fox, priced at 0.1%. The scored record on this page lists every cycle with its sources.

When are the golf majors in 2027?

The Masters final round is on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Augusta National. The PGA Championship ends on 23 May at PGA Frisco in Texas, the U.S. Open on 20 June at Pebble Beach, and The Open on 18 July at the Old Course, St Andrews. The Ryder Cup is played at Adare Manor in Ireland from 17 to 19 September 2027.

How does a golf winner market resolve?

On the player who wins the tournament, including any playoff, as the market's rules state. A player who withdraws or misses the cut resolves No. Read the rules for what happens if a round is cancelled for weather.

Why is the favourite so often priced below 20%?

Because the field is large and the margins are small: one bad round ends most players' chances. A price of 15% on the favourite still means the market expects someone else to win more than eight times in ten.

Is this a forecast by Vultax?

No. The room shows what traders pay on Polymarket, with the volume and resting depth beside each price. It is research context, not a prediction or a recommendation.

Golf Odds: the Masters and Majors

1,358 markets

Polymarket read 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC

Golf, the market's forecast

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

Europe58.0%

Europe58%

USA39%

Europe58%
USA39%
Tie8.4%

Election day

163 days

8 Apr 2027

Traded, 24h

$208

in this market

Traded, all time

$2.9K

$2.7K resting now

All related markets, 24h

$273

1,358 markets across 21 events

Try it on paper

Vi IQ: what actually moved

Each outcome is measured against its own normal daily swing over 30 days

Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.

USA40%35Noise
Sharp rise24h +11.07d +2.0normal day ±1.0
Up 11 points in 24 hours, 11× its normal daily swing.
Tie8.4%24Noise
Quiet24h +1.47d −0.9normal day ±1.8
Little change: +1.4 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 1.8.
Europe55%19Noise
Quiet24h +0.57d +3.5normal day ±3.0
Little change: +0.5 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 3.0.

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The race, last 30 days

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

2027 Ryder Cup Winner: price 30 days ago and now
Outcome	30 days ago	Now
Europe	46%	55%
USA	32%	40%
Tie	45%	8.4%

Where the money went today

$273 across 21 events

2027 Ryder Cup Winner$208Europe 58%
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?$65Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? 55%

What an order really pays

Order book depth and the average price a $1,000 and a $10,000 buy order would pay
Outcome	Bid / ask	Within 2¢	$1K pays	$10K pays
Europe	56¢/60¢	$68, $90	80¢fills $388	80¢fills $388
USA	35¢/43¢	$7, $31	72¢+29	78¢fills $5.4K
Tie	6.2¢/11¢	$2, $9	67¢fills $414	67¢fills $414

Large trades

Sold Yes at 91¢Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?$1.8Klaseptimalavencida
Bought Yes at 92¢Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?$1.1Kkrokotuk

Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs

Work this room

What are the odds in Polymarket's golf markets?

On Polymarket, “2027 Ryder Cup Winner” has Europe in front at 58%, on $208 traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 1,358 open markets across 21 Polymarket events, which together traded $273 over the same 24 hours and hold $749K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC.

How the favourite fared in golf's biggest events

Each row is one settled Polymarket market on a men's major or the Ryder Cup: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the result was known, and the eventual winner's own price at the same moments. In a tournament or a season, the one-day reading falls before the deciding day.

The day-before favourite won 3 of 5 events scored here; the eventual result traded at 45.6% on average that day.

Cycle30 days before7 days beforeDay beforeResult

The Open 2026PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner$3.3M traded

30 days beforenot listed yet

7 days beforenot listed yet

Day beforeScottie Scheffler 14.5%lostRyan Fox 0.1%

ResultRyan Fox

The majors and the Ryder Cup

1 market, $208 traded in 24h

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

$208 24h, $2.7K liquidity, closes 20 Sep 2027

2027 Ryder Cup Winner: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Europe	58%	—	—	$188	$894

Tour event winners

1 market, $0 traded in 24h

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner

$0 24h, $743K liquidity, starts 29 Oct, 00:00 UTC

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Wyndham Clark	3.5%	—	—	$0

Leaders and finishing places

1 market, $0 traded in 24h

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Top 20

$0 24h, $2.0K liquidity, starts 29 Oct, 00:00 UTC

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Top 20: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Seamus Power	8.5%	—	—	$0

Everything else

2 markets, $65 traded in 24h

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?

$65 24h, $669 liquidity, closes 2 Jan 2027

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	55%	—	—	$65	$669

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

Each recorded move in the Golf room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.

USADaily close 26 Oct−14.5 pts
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
EuropeDaily close 17 Oct−11.0 pts
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
TieDaily close 8 Oct+27.5 pts
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.

About the Golf prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to golf and sorts it into the majors and the Ryder Cup, tour event winners, leaders and finishing places, and everything else. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.

A golf winner market is a field of well over a hundred names, and even the favourite rarely starts above one chance in five. The Masters is the largest golf market Polymarket lists: its 2026 winner market traded more than $120 million.

What moves these markets

Form in the tour events of the weeks before each major
The course: Augusta rewards length and touch around the greens, links courses reward control in the wind
Weather and the tee-time draw, since half the field can play in harder conditions over the first two days
Withdrawals and injuries before the first round
For the Ryder Cup, the captains' picks and the home side's course set-up

Dates to watch

11 Apr 2027The Masters: final round, Augusta National Golf Club

Questions

Golf prediction markets: questions and answers

What are the odds in Polymarket's golf markets?: In the busiest market Vultax links to this question, “2027 Ryder Cup Winner”, Europe leads at 58% on Polymarket as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC. A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so it reads as a probability. It moves with every trade; the boards on this page list the other priced outcomes with their 24-hour volume, liquidity and close date.
Does the Polymarket favourite usually win a golf major?: The day-before favourite won 3 of 5 events scored here; the eventual result traded at 45.6% on average that day. Most recently, PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner: the day before, Scottie Scheffler led at 14.5% and lost to Ryan Fox, priced at 0.1%. The scored record on this page lists every cycle with its sources.
When are the golf majors in 2027?: The Masters final round is on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Augusta National. The PGA Championship ends on 23 May at PGA Frisco in Texas, the U.S. Open on 20 June at Pebble Beach, and The Open on 18 July at the Old Course, St Andrews. The Ryder Cup is played at Adare Manor in Ireland from 17 to 19 September 2027.
How does a golf winner market resolve?: On the player who wins the tournament, including any playoff, as the market's rules state. A player who withdraws or misses the cut resolves No. Read the rules for what happens if a round is cancelled for weather.
Why is the favourite so often priced below 20%?: Because the field is large and the margins are small: one bad round ends most players' chances. A price of 15% on the favourite still means the market expects someone else to win more than eight times in ten.

2027 Ryder Cup Winner: price 30 days ago and now
Outcome	30 days ago	Now
Europe	46%	55%
USA	32%	40%
Tie	45%	8.4%

Outcome

Bid / ask

$1K pays

$10K pays

Europe

56¢/60¢

80¢fills $388

USA

35¢/43¢

72¢+29

78¢fills $5.4K

Tie

6.2¢/11¢

67¢fills $414

What are the odds in Polymarket's golf markets?

How the favourite fared in golf's biggest events

The day-before favourite won 3 of 5 events scored here; the eventual result traded at 45.6% on average that day.

Cycle30 days before7 days beforeDay beforeResult

The Open 2026PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner$3.3M traded

30 days beforenot listed yet

7 days beforenot listed yet

Day beforeScottie Scheffler 14.5%lostRyan Fox 0.1%

ResultRyan Fox

2027 Ryder Cup Winner: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Europe	58%	—	—	$188	$894

Outcome

Chance

Paper trade

Europe

58%

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Wyndham Clark	3.5%	—	—	$0

Outcome

Chance

Paper trade

Wyndham Clark

3.5%

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Top 20: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Seamus Power	8.5%	—	—	$0

Outcome

Chance

Paper trade

Seamus Power

8.5%

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	55%	—	—	$65	$669

Outcome

Chance

Paper trade

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?

55%

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

USADaily close 26 Oct−14.5 pts

Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.

EuropeDaily close 17 Oct−11.0 pts

Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.

TieDaily close 8 Oct+27.5 pts

Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.

About the Golf prediction markets

What moves these markets

Form in the tour events of the weeks before each major
The course: Augusta rewards length and touch around the greens, links courses reward control in the wind
Weather and the tee-time draw, since half the field can play in harder conditions over the first two days
Withdrawals and injuries before the first round
For the Ryder Cup, the captains' picks and the home side's course set-up

Dates to watch

11 Apr 2027The Masters: final round, Augusta National Golf Club

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

Vi IQ: what actually moved

The race, last 30 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Large trades

Work this room

What are the odds in Polymarket's golf markets?

How the favourite fared in golf's biggest events

The majors and the Ryder Cup

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

Tour event winners

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner

Leaders and finishing places

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Top 20

Everything else

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

About the Golf prediction markets

What moves these markets

Dates to watch

Golf prediction markets: questions and answers

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

Vi IQ: what actually moved

The race, last 30 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Large trades

Work this room

What are the odds in Polymarket's golf markets?

How the favourite fared in golf's biggest events

The majors and the Ryder Cup

2027 Ryder Cup Winner

Tour event winners

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner

Leaders and finishing places

PGA Tour: VidantaWorld Mexico Open Top 20

Everything else

Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

About the Golf prediction markets

What moves these markets

Dates to watch

Golf prediction markets: questions and answers

Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026?

Vultax research