How does the aliens disclosure market resolve?

Yes if the President, any Cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the deadline; otherwise No. The source is official information from the US government, with a consensus of credible reporting.

Would a UFO file release count as disclosure?

Not by itself. A release of records settles the file markets; the disclosure market needs a definitive statement from one of the officials or agencies its rules name.

Why does a long-shot market trade so much?

A cheap Yes pays a lot if it comes true, so long shots attract steady buying, and the No side ties up money until the deadline. The price is the market's read of the chance, with the volume beside it.

Is this a forecast by Vultax?

No. The room shows what traders pay on Polymarket, with the volume and resting depth beside each price. It is research context, not a prediction or a recommendation.

Alien Disclosure Odds

Q: Will the US confirm that aliens exist?

In the busiest market Vultax links to this question, “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”, December 31 leads at 4.0% on Polymarket as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC. A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so it reads as a probability. It moves with every trade; the boards on this page list the other priced outcomes with their 24-hour volume, liquidity and close date.

6 markets

Polymarket read 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC

Aliens and UFOs, the market's forecast

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314.0%

December 314.0%Yes4.0¢No96¢

This market closes

1 Jan 2027

Traded, 24h

$148K

in this market

Traded, all time

$75M

$865K resting now

All related markets, 24h

$180K

6 markets across 3 events

Comments

1,734

on Polymarket

Try it on paper

December 31Yes4.0¢No96¢
October 31Yes0.45¢No99.55¢

Vi IQ: what actually moved

Each outcome is measured against its own normal daily swing over 30 days

Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.

December 314.0%16Noise
Quiet24h −0.27d −0.3normal day ±0.4
Little change: −0.2 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
October 31<1%12Noise
Quiet24h −0.27d −0.1normal day ±0.4
Little change: −0.2 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.

Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.

How the odds moved, last 30 days

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: price 30 days ago, or on the first full day of trading for a name listed since, and now
Outcome	30 days ago, or first full day	Now
December 31	3.8%	4.0%
October 31	1.1% on 2 Oct, its first full day (listed 1 Oct)	<1%

Where the money went today

$180K across 3 events

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?$148KDecember 31 4.0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?$31.3KDecember 31 94%

What an order really pays

Order book depth and the average price a $1,000 and a $10,000 buy order would pay
Outcome	Bid / ask	Within 2¢	$1K pays	$10K pays
December 31	3.9¢/4¢	$49.7K, $21.9K	4.3¢+0.3	4.9¢+0.9
October 31	0.4¢/0.5¢	$402, $464	1.9¢+1.4	11¢+11

The largest positions

Scaly-TracksuitNo, December 31$1.4M
world-changerNo, December 31$883K
SecondWindCapitalNo, December 31$433K
elmcap2No, December 31$374K
elmcap2No, October 31$288K
charliealmanackNo, December 31$267K
LuckyOne - 7118No, December 31$229K
AvamaxNo, October 31$60.1K
Dafu0715No, October 31$49.8K
Trump2028No, October 31$39.7K

Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare

Large trades

Sold No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.8KGrizzled-Filth
Bought No at 90¢Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?$8.4Ktetrase
Bought No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.7K0xef97…ab2c
Bought No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$2.0K0xef97…ab2c
Bought No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$2.0K0xef97…ab2c
Bought No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$2.0K0xef97…ab2c
Bought Yes at 93¢Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?$1.4KsmellyEllie
Bought No at 87¢Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?$1.5KsmellyEllie
Sold No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$9.6KKrejza68
Sold No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$4.8KKrejza68
Bought No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$2.9KPamBondiBonds
Bought No at 96¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$10.3KAvamax

Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs

Work this room

Will the US confirm that aliens exist?

On Polymarket, “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?” has December 31 in front at 4.0%, on $148K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 6 open markets across 3 Polymarket events, which together traded $180K over the same 24 hours and hold $904K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC.

Was the world watching? Attention outside the venue, last 28 days

Daily reads of the English Wikipedia articles on UFOs and extraterrestrial life. Bars are reads per day; the line is the lead rung's price on the same days. A move that arrives with a spike in reads is a repricing on news; one without is the market working alone.

Reads per day, left axis
“December 31” price, 3.5% → 4.2%, right axis

Latest day: 2,247; 1.1× a typical day
Peak: 2,677; 8 Oct 2026, 1.3× typical

Disclosure

1 market, $148K traded in 24h

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

$148K 24h, $865K liquidity, closes 1 Jan 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31	4.0%	—	—	$45.5K

UFO files

2 markets, $31.3K traded in 24h

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

$31.3K 24h, $37.9K liquidity, closes 1 Dec 2026

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31	94%	—	—	$7.2K

How Aliens and UFOs markets resolved

Aliens and UFOs: recently resolved markets
Market	Resolved as	Total volume	Settled
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?	October 31	$29.0K	23 Oct 2026
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?	September 30	$138K	18 Sep 2026
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?	August 15	$68.4K	7 Aug 2026
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?	July 31	$402K

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

The Aliens and UFOs room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.

About the Aliens and UFOs prediction markets

This room reads Polymarket's markets on alien disclosure and UFO files: whether the US government says extraterrestrial life or technology exists, and whether governments declassify new records. The disclosure market is one of the largest open questions on Polymarket by money traded.

The rules are narrow. The disclosure market pays Yes only if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or a federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. Hearings, leaked accounts and unexplained sightings do not count on their own.

What moves these markets

Congressional hearings on unidentified anomalous phenomena and the testimony given at them
Reports from the Pentagon's office that reviews sightings
Declassification orders and the records they release
Statements by senior officials, which the market reads against its exact wording

Questions

Aliens and UFOs prediction markets: questions and answers

Will the US confirm that aliens exist?: In the busiest market Vultax links to this question, “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”, December 31 leads at 4.0% on Polymarket as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC. A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so it reads as a probability. It moves with every trade; the boards on this page list the other priced outcomes with their 24-hour volume, liquidity and close date.
How does the aliens disclosure market resolve?: Yes if the President, any Cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the deadline; otherwise No. The source is official information from the US government, with a consensus of credible reporting.
Would a UFO file release count as disclosure?: Not by itself. A release of records settles the file markets; the disclosure market needs a definitive statement from one of the officials or agencies its rules name.
Why does a long-shot market trade so much?: A cheap Yes pays a lot if it comes true, so long shots attract steady buying, and the No side ties up money until the deadline. The price is the market's read of the chance, with the volume beside it.
Is this a forecast by Vultax?: No. The room shows what traders pay on Polymarket, with the volume and resting depth beside each price. It is research context, not a prediction or a recommendation.

Outcome

Bid / ask

$1K pays

$10K pays

December 31

3.9¢/4¢

4.3¢+0.3

4.9¢+0.9

October 31

0.4¢/0.5¢

1.9¢+1.4

11¢+11

Will the US confirm that aliens exist?

Was the world watching? Attention outside the venue, last 28 days

Reads per day, left axis
“December 31” price, 3.5% → 4.2%, right axis

Latest day: 2,247; 1.1× a typical day
Peak: 2,677; 8 Oct 2026, 1.3× typical

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31	4.0%	—	—	$45.5K

Outcome

Chance

Paper trade

December 31

4.0%

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31	94%	—	—	$7.2K

Outcome

Chance

Paper trade

December 31

94%

Market

Resolved as

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

October 31

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

September 30

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

August 15

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

July 31

About the Aliens and UFOs prediction markets

What moves these markets

Congressional hearings on unidentified anomalous phenomena and the testimony given at them
Reports from the Pentagon's office that reviews sightings
Declassification orders and the records they release
Statements by senior officials, which the market reads against its exact wording

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Vi IQ: what actually moved

How the odds moved, last 30 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

The largest positions

Large trades

Work this room

Will the US confirm that aliens exist?

Was the world watching? Attention outside the venue, last 28 days

Disclosure

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

UFO files

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

How Aliens and UFOs markets resolved

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

About the Aliens and UFOs prediction markets

What moves these markets

Aliens and UFOs prediction markets: questions and answers

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Vi IQ: what actually moved

How the odds moved, last 30 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

The largest positions

Large trades

Work this room

Will the US confirm that aliens exist?

Was the world watching? Attention outside the venue, last 28 days

Disclosure

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

UFO files

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

How Aliens and UFOs markets resolved

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

About the Aliens and UFOs prediction markets

What moves these markets

Aliens and UFOs prediction markets: questions and answers

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

Vultax research

What would change your mind on Aliens and UFOs?

Your forecast record