Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 3.5 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 26 Nov 2025.
Across the 307 daily closes on record from 26 Nov 2025 to 27 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 22 Apr 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 3.5%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”.
$25.22K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.96M since listing. The order book holds $792.58K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is TexasOx with 919.4K shares; the largest No position is Scaly-Tracksuit with 1.46M. Ten wallets hold 43.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 307 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 7.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 4.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Scaly-Tracksuit | No | 1.46M |
| TexasOx | Yes | 919.4K |
| world-changer | No | 919.34K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027
| yeslabby |
| Yes |
| 882.99K |
| ShayaEredyon | Yes | 550.25K |
| celestat3123 | Yes | 531.84K |
| SecondWindCapital | No | 450.38K |
| elmcap2 | No | 389.35K |
| NqJoaquin | Yes | 315.89K |
| Neglected-Antibody | Yes | 306.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
