Prices as of 8 Oct 2026, 22:14 UTC. The market pays Yes if Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive says the game will miss 19 November, or if it is not on sale in the United States by the end of that day.
Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Down 1.7 points in a week, 1.6× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Trade GTA 6 on paper, free
A free account gives you a practice balance at live Polymarket prices, a portfolio that marks itself, and Vi on every market. No card.
Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.5% | 3.9% |
Every box is one Polymarket event in this room. The bigger the box, the more was traded in the last 24 hours.
The order book behind “GTA 6 launch postponed again?”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | 3.3¢/4.4¢ | $3.0K · $1.1K | 5.0¢+0.6 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Polymarket publishes no view counts. Comments are the nearest thing to a crowd, and they do not always follow the money.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
6 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 5 Oct 2026.
Down 2.1 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 2.1 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Each row is the Polymarket market on one announced release date: the side priced higher 30 days, 7 days and one day before, against what happened. For the two dates that slipped, the checkpoints count back from the day the delay was announced, and Yes meant a release on time. The open row counts back from 19 November 2026; its market asks whether the launch is postponed, so there No is the on-time side.
The day-before favourite lost both release dates scored here; the eventual result traded at 39.3% on average that day.
Whether the launch slips again, and the date the game is out by
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 95% | 0 | +1.8 | $2.0K | $16.4K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes95¢No4.6¢ |
What the game costs on day one
Trailers, the soundtrack, review scores and a PC version
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodak Black | 86% | +6.5 | −5.0 | $40 | $471 | 26 Nov 2026 | Yes86¢No14¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
This room reads every open Polymarket market on Grand Theft Auto VI, led by the market on whether the 19 November 2026 launch is postponed again, and keeps the record of what the venue priced before each of the two delays so far.
A release-date market is a bet on a company's own announcement, and both delays arrived without notice in a Rockstar post. The record here is therefore counted back from each announcement, not from the date that was missed; by then the market had long since moved.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
| October 31 | <1% | 0 | 0 | $50 | $29.2K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | 3.9% | 0 | −0.7 | $2.1K | $51.4K | 20 Nov 2026 | Yes3.9¢No96¢ |
| $75+ | 97% | +0.5 | −0.8 | $223 | $511 | 19 Nov 2026 | Yes97¢No3.5¢ |
| $70+ | 95% | −2.7 | −2.8 | $405 | $1.5K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes95¢No5.1¢ |
| $80+ | 2.6% | 0 | −1.5 | $881 | $1.6K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | 1.8% | — | 0 | $0 | $10.4K | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Don Toliver | 86% | −0.5 | +2.0 | $29 | $983 | 26 Nov 2026 | Yes86¢No14¢ |
| Bad Bunny | 53% | −10 | +9.0 | $99 | $229 | 26 Nov 2026 | Yes53¢No47¢ |
| The Weeknd | 49% | +5.0 | +10 | $276 | $247 | 26 Nov 2026 | Yes49¢No52¢ |
| Sexyy Red | 45% | −4.0 | +2.5 | $209 | $110 | 26 Nov 2026 | Yes45¢No55¢ |
| Osamason | 28% | — | +5.5 | $0 | $257 | 26 Nov 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
6 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31? | 38% | −2.0 | +11 | $176 | $994 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes38¢No63¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 60% | +1.0 | −2.0 | $152 | $267 | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes60¢No41¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mask Off | 50% | +8.5 | +13 | $5 | $73 | 4 Dec 2026 | Yes50¢No51¢ |
| Sicko Mode | 36% | +1.5 | −5.0 | $26 | $144 | 4 Dec 2026 | Yes36¢No64¢ |
| Stay | 31% | +17 | +20 | $5 | $44 | 4 Dec 2026 | Yes31¢No69¢ |
| Bad and Boujee | 28% | — | +2.0 | $0 | $572 | 4 Dec 2026 | Yes28¢No72¢ |
| God's Plan | 24% | — | −3.5 | $0 | $563 | 4 Dec 2026 | Yes24¢No77¢ |
| Pepas | 23% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $575 | 4 Dec 2026 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
8 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90+ | 94% | 0 | −0.8 | $0 | $5.3K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes94¢No5.8¢ |
| 92+ | 93% | — | −1.8 | $1 | $3.4K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes93¢No7.0¢ |
| 94+ | 92% | 0 | −3.4 | $0 | $10.6K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes92¢No7.6¢ |
| 96+ | 75% | −0.5 | — | $0 | $2.7K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes75¢No26¢ |
| 98+ | 36% | — | +12 | $19 | $2.1K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes36¢No65¢ |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
