Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Down 12 points in a week, 5.2× a normal week for this contract.
Up 18 points on the day, against a week that ran down 10: more than 20× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 20 points on the day, against a week that ran down 9.9: more than 20× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Little change: −4.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 5.5.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 44% | 26% |
| Vanderbilt | 9.5% | 24% |
| Iowa | 45% | 22% |
| Oregon | 43% | 23% |
| UCLA | 44% | 21% |
| Kentucky | 44% | 23% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 0.2¢/49¢ | $1, $2.0K | 49¢+0.1 | 73¢+24 |
| Vanderbilt | 0.2¢/49¢ | $1, $2.1K | 49¢+0.1 | 73¢+24 |
| Iowa | 0.1¢/47¢ | $0, $2.0K | 47¢+0.1 | 72¢+25 |
| Oregon | 0.2¢/45¢ | $1, $2.8K | 45¢+0.1 | 72¢+27 |
| UCLA | 0.2¢/45¢ | $1, $1.8K | 45¢+0.2 | 71¢+27 |
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
On Polymarket, “2027 Men's College Basketball National Champion” has Tennessee in front at 25%, on $1.3K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 144 open markets across 100 Polymarket events, which together traded $6.5K over the same 24 hours and hold $227K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC.
Each row is one settled Polymarket market on the NCAA Tournament: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the result was known, and the eventual winner's own price at the same moments. In a tournament or a season, the one-day reading falls before the deciding day.
The day-before favourite won both tournaments scored here; the eventual result traded at 62.6% on average that day.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 25% | — | — | $0 |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 98% | — | — | $1.9K | $3.6K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 NBA Draft: 1st Overall pick | AJ Dybantsa | $737K | 24 Jun 2026 |
| 2026 NCAA Tournament Winner | Michigan | $27M | 7 Apr 2026 |
| 2025 NCAA Tournament Winner | Florida | $23M | 8 Apr 2025 |
| Which Conference will win NCAA Tournament? | SEC | $385K |
Each recorded move in the College basketball room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on men's college basketball and sorts it into the national championship, conference titles and the road to the Final Four, the games on the slate and everything else. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
The champion market opens before the season and trades all winter, but most of its money arrives in March: the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner market traded about $27 million. Single elimination makes the bracket unforgiving: one off night ends a favourite's season.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
| 20 Apr 2027 |
| Yes25¢No75¢ |
| Vanderbilt | 25% | — | — | $0 | $4.6K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| Iowa | 24% | — | — | $0 | $4.4K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes24¢No77¢ |
| Oregon | 23% | — | — | $0 | $4.6K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| UCLA | 23% | — | — | $0 | $4.5K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| Kentucky | 23% | — | — | $0 | $4.5K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| Oklahoma State | 22% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes22¢No79¢ |
| Duke | 22% | — | — | $0 | $6.5K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes22¢No79¢ |
| Nebraska | 20% | — | — | $0 | $4.6K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| Creighton | 20% | — | — | $0 | $4.9K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| Florida | 17% | — | — | $461 | $5.6K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Virginia | 17% | — | — | $0 | $4.0K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Illinois | 12% | — | — | $0 | $5.2K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Kansas | 8.4% | — | — | $0 | $1.9K | 20 Apr 2027 | Yes8.4¢No92¢ |
| Buy98¢ |
| Army Black Knights | 2.5% | — | — | $1.9K | $3.6K | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy2.5¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 97% | — | — | $1.8K | $2.7K | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy97¢ |
| Fisk Bulldogs | 3.3% | — | — | $1.8K | $2.7K | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy3.3¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State Owls | 86% | — | — | $229 | $633 | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy86¢ |
| Midway Eagles | 14% | — | — | $229 | $633 | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy14¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 88% | — | — | $216 | $545 | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy88¢ |
| Rivier Raiders | 12% | — | — | $216 | $545 | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy12¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International Golden Panthers | 88% | — | — | $153 | $517 | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy88¢ |
| New College of Florida Mighty Banyans | 12% | — | — | $153 | $517 | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy12¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee State Tigers | 57% | — | — | $140 | $969 | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy57¢ |
| Murray State Racers | 43% | — | — | $140 | $969 | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy43¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell Big Red | 72% | — | — | $107 | $612 | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy72¢ |
| Pepperdine Waves | 28% | — | — | $107 | $612 | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy28¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans | 89% | — | — | $74 | $1.2K | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy89¢ |
| Quinnipiac Bobcats | 11% | — | — | $74 | $1.2K | 3 Nov 2026 | Buy11¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | 95% | — | — | $38 | $1.6K | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy95¢ |
| Oakland Golden Grizzlies | 5.5% | — | — | $38 | $1.6K | 2 Nov 2026 | Buy5.5¢ |
| Team from which region wins the NCAA Tournament? | West | $93.4K | 8 Apr 2025 |
| Florida vs. Houston | Florida | $2.6M | 8 Apr 2025 |
| Will a #1 seed win the NCAA Tournament? | Yes | $82.5K | 8 Apr 2025 |
| 2025 NCAA Tournament Winner (W) | Connecticut | $1.1M | 7 Apr 2025 |
| Houston vs. Duke | Houston | $2.1M | 6 Apr 2025 |
| Florida vs. Auburn | Florida | $1.8M | 6 Apr 2025 |
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
