Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: +2.5 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 3.0.
Up 20 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract.
Down 12 points in a week, 2.2× a normal week for this contract.
Little change: +1.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 1.0.
Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ↓ 2,250 | 27% | 78% |
| ↓ 2,000 | 13% | 37% |
| ↑ 3,000 | 69% | 24% |
| ↓ 1,750 | 7.0% | 14% |
| ↑ 3,500 | 38% | 12% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 6.7% | 9.6% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 2,250 | 77¢/78¢ | $596, $2.7K | 79¢+0.9 | 85¢+7.4 |
| ↓ 2,000 | 36¢/37¢ | $492, $208 | 40¢+2.5 | 53¢+16 |
| ↑ 3,000 | 23¢/25¢ | $320, $520 | 27¢+2.0 | 34¢+9.4 |
| ↓ 1,750 | 13¢/14¢ | $1.7K, $236 | 19¢+5.0 | 32¢+18 |
| ↑ 3,500 | 11¢/13¢ | $595, $697 | 14¢+1.5 | 22¢+8.7 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-10-27 18:34 UTC
Up 2.3 points in 24 hours, 5.7× its normal daily swing. Up 3.7 on the week. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 7.5 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Up 11 on the week. At its highest in 30 days.
On Polymarket, “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?” prices it at 78% to fall to 2,250, 37% to fall to 2,000, 24% to reach 3,000 and 14% to fall to 1,750, on $58.4K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. 8 earlier deadlines have settled, 8 of them Yes. This room reads 290 open markets across 29 Polymarket events, which together traded $500K over the same 24 hours and hold $6.9M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC.
Each rung pays if Ether touches the level before the deadline. The options column is the chance of the same touch implied by Deribit's listed options: the implied volatility of the out-of-the-money option at the expiry nearest the deadline, put through the standard one-touch formula with no drift. Index 2,345 when read.
| Level | Polymarket | Options | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 5,000 | 3% | 1% | +2 pts |
| ↑ 4,500 | 4% | 2% | +2 pts |
| ↑ 4,000 | 7% | 4% | +3 pts |
| ↑ 3,500 | 12% | 8% | +4 pts |
| ↑ 3,000 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 2,250 | 78% | — | — | $696 | $67.0K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 2,300 | 70% | — | — | $431 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,000 | >99% | — | — | $5.6K | $36.3K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum above ___ on October 27? | 1,900 | $224K | 27 Oct 2026 |
The Ethereum Price room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads Polymarket's Ethereum price markets and sorts them by horizon: the year, the month and the days ahead. Each market is a ladder of price levels, and each rung is its own yes or no contract on whether Ethereum touches that level before the deadline.
A rung is a touch contract: it pays if the level trades at any moment before the deadline, not only if Ethereum closes there. Beside the ladder, the room reads Deribit's listed Ethereum options, so the same level can be read twice: once as traders on Polymarket price it, once as the options market implies it.
| 24% |
| 23% |
| +1 pts |
| ↓ 2,250 | 78% | 87% | -9 pts |
| ↓ 2,000 | 37% | 53% | -17 pts |
| ↓ 1,750 | 14% | 29% | -16 pts |
| ↓ 1,500 | 10% | 16% | -6 pts |
| ↓ 1,250 | 10% | 9% | +1 pts |
| ↓ 1,000 | 3% | 4% | -1 pts |
| ↓ 800 | 3% | 2% | 0 pts |
| Level | Polymarket | Options | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 3,000 | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
| ↑ 2,900 | 2% | <1% | +1 pts |
| ↑ 2,800 | 2% | 1% | +1 pts |
| ↑ 2,700 | 4% | 5% | -1 pts |
| ↑ 2,600 | 7% | 10% | -3 pts |
| ↑ 2,500 | 19% | 24% | -5 pts |
| ↑ 2,400 | 63% | 64% | -1 pts |
| ↓ 2,300 | 71% | 73% | -2 pts |
| ↓ 2,200 | 23% | 32% | -9 pts |
| ↓ 2,100 | 9% | 16% | -7 pts |
| ↓ 2,000 | 3% | 9% | -6 pts |
| ↓ 1,900 | 2% | 2% | 0 pts |
| Level | Polymarket | Options | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 2,800 | 1% | 3% | -2 pts |
| ↑ 2,700 | 2% | 8% | -5 pts |
| ↑ 2,600 | 8% | 14% | -6 pts |
| ↑ 2,500 | 25% | 29% | -4 pts |
| ↑ 2,400 | 68% | 68% | 0 pts |
| ↓ 2,200 | 28% | 37% | -9 pts |
| ↓ 2,100 | 10% | 20% | -11 pts |
| ↓ 2,000 | 4% | 12% | -8 pts |
| ↓ 1,900 | 1% | 4% | -3 pts |
| ↓ 1,800 | 1% | 1% | 0 pts |
The two venues settle on different prices (Polymarket names one exchange's feed in each market's rules; Deribit's index averages several), and the formula assumes the smile does not move. A gap is a question about the two markets, not a trade: fees, spreads and the size either book holds decide whether it is worth anything. Source: Deribit public market data, read 27 Oct 2026.
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes78¢No22¢ |
| ↓ 2,000 | 37% | — | — | $6.4K | $68.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes37¢No64¢ |
| ↑ 3,000 | 24% | — | — | $297 | $77.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes24¢No76¢ |
| ↓ 1,750 | 14% | — | — | $5.5K | $77.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| ↑ 3,500 | 12% | — | — | $990 | $106K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| ↓ 1,500 | 9.6% | — | — | $15.4K | $147K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes9.6¢No90¢ |
| ↓ 1,250 | 9.5% | — | — | $25.4K | $85.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| ↑ 4,000 | 7.0% | — | — | $1.0K | $127K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| ↑ 4,500 | 4.3% | — | — | $20 | $131K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| ↓ 1,000 | 3.4% | — | — | $187 | $117K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| ↑ 5,000 | 3.1% | — | — | $1 | $131K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| ↓ 800 | 2.6% | — | — | $8 | $108K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Gwei | 32% | — | — | $0 | $66 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| 10 Gwei | 19% | — | — | $0 | $47 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| 15 Gwei | 19% | — | — | $61 | $341 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| 25 Gwei | 16% | — | — | $0 | $223 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| 20 Gwei | 15% | — | — | $0 | $104 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| 40 Gwei | 7.2% | — | — | $0 | $199 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.2¢No93¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 2.5% | — | — | $5 | $74.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| 1 Nov 2026 |
| Yes70¢No30¢ |
| ↑ 2,400 | 63% | — | — | $26.4K | $43.8K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes63¢No37¢ |
| ↓ 2,200 | 23% | — | — | $30.7K | $58.2K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| ↑ 2,500 | 19% | — | — | $30.1K | $49.2K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| ↓ 2,100 | 8.5% | — | — | $4.3K | $58.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| ↑ 2,600 | 6.5% | — | — | $5.4K | $54.6K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| ↑ 2,700 | 3.8% | — | — | $3.0K | $60.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes3.8¢No96¢ |
| ↓ 2,000 | 2.9% | — | — | $8.0K | $68.1K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| ↑ 2,800 | 2.4% | — | — | $18.7K | $72.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| ↓ 1,900 | 1.8% | — | — | $12.9K | $76.8K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| ↑ 2,900 | 1.8% | — | — | $17.6K | $62.6K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| ↑ 3,000 | <1% | — | — | $21.1K | $70.7K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes0.75¢No99.25¢ |
| Yes99.85¢No0.15¢ |
| 2,100 | >99% | — | — | $3.9K | $38.3K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes99.65¢No0.35¢ |
| 2,200 | 99% | — | — | $3.0K | $38.3K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes99¢No1.2¢ |
| 2,300 | 82% | — | — | $973 | $37.1K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes82¢No19¢ |
| 2,400 | 17% | — | — | $59.3K | $38.6K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes17¢No84¢ |
| 2,500 | 1.8% | — | — | $10.7K | $36.4K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| 2,600 | <1% | — | — | $2.7K | $39.0K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.35¢No99.65¢ |
| 2,700 | <1% | — | — | $1.7K | $38.2K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| 2,800 | <1% | — | — | $2.2K | $37.5K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| 3,000 | <1% | — | — | $2.2K | $47.9K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 2,400 | 4.5% | — | — | $10.2K | $17.4K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| ↓ 2,250 | 2.8% | — | — | $13.3K | $12.0K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
| ↑ 2,450 | 1% | — | — | $1.9K | $20.1K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes1¢No99¢ |
| ↓ 2,150 | <1% | — | — | $5.5K | $25.2K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| ↑ 2,500 | <1% | — | — | $1.5K | $25.7K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.55¢No99.45¢ |
| ↑ 2,550 | <1% | — | — | $5 | $25.3K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99.5¢ |
| ↑ 2,600 | <1% | — | — | $0 | $25.0K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.45¢No99.55¢ |
| ↓ 2,050 | <1% | — | — | $15 | $22.9K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No99.6¢ |
| ↓ 2,000 | <1% | — | — | $15 | $24.0K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No99.6¢ |
| ↓ 2,100 | <1% | — | — | $0 | $25.2K | 28 Oct 2026 | Yes0.3¢No99.7¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 2,400 | 68% | — | — | $1.2K | $39.4K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| ↓ 2,200 | 28% | — | — | $3.2K | $42.5K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes28¢No72¢ |
| ↑ 2,500 | 24% | — | — | $2.8K | $43.4K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes24¢No76¢ |
| ↓ 2,100 | 9.5% | — | — | $48 | $45.9K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| ↑ 2,600 | 7.5% | — | — | $3.2K | $46.3K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| ↓ 2,000 | 3.5% | — | — | $1.7K | $40.7K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes3.5¢No96¢ |
| ↑ 2,700 | 2.4% | — | — | $6.8K | $48.7K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| ↓ 1,900 | 1.5% | — | — | $1.5K | $48.2K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| ↑ 2,800 | 1.3% | — | — | $430 | $28.4K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| ↓ 1,800 | <1% | — | — | $0 | $24.6K | 2 Nov 2026 | Yes0.85¢No99.15¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,900 | >99% | — | — | $153 | $10.0K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes99.55¢No0.45¢ |
| 2,000 | >99% | — | — | $0 | $35.8K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes99.45¢No0.55¢ |
| 2,100 | 98% | — | — | $4.0K | $36.6K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes98¢No1.8¢ |
| 2,200 | 95% | — | — | $3.9K | $36.5K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes95¢No4.5¢ |
| 2,300 | 73% | — | — | $78 | $39.7K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes73¢No28¢ |
| 2,400 | 25% | — | — | $884 | $16.7K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| 2,500 | 5.3% | — | — | $6.0K | $35.8K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| 2,600 | 1.1% | — | — | $392 | $36.4K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| 2,700 | <1% | — | — | $2.1K | $35.8K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes0.75¢No99.25¢ |
| 2,800 | <1% | — | — | $297 | $10.9K | 29 Oct 2026 | Yes0.25¢No99.75¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,900 | >99% | — | — | $0 | $5.6K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes99.45¢No0.55¢ |
| 2,000 | 99% | — | — | $0 | $33.4K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes99¢No1.1¢ |
| 2,100 | 98% | — | — | $0 | $33.6K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes98¢No2.3¢ |
| 2,200 | 92% | — | — | $1.1K | $36.0K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes92¢No8.0¢ |
| 2,300 | 68% | — | — | $51 | $36.6K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| 2,400 | 30% | — | — | $0 | $9.4K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes30¢No71¢ |
| 2,500 | 8% | — | — | $5.6K | $36.2K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes8¢No92¢ |
| 2,600 | 1.9% | — | — | $4.4K | $33.9K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| 2,700 | <1% | — | — | $145 | $33.6K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.85¢No99.15¢ |
| 2,800 | <1% | — | — | $29 | $30.1K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTCRead 27 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
36.5%
Market 36.5% · +0.0 pts
Your scenario, not a Vultax forecast.
Private to your account.
Scored when the market resolves.
Sign in to keep forecasts across devices.
