Strait of Hormuz prediction markets

This room reads Polymarket's markets on the Strait of Hormuz, the channel between Iran and Oman that carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil and gas, and sets them beside the ship counts they settle on.

The shipping markets resolve on IMF PortWatch, which counts daily transit calls from satellite ship-tracking data: container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships and tankers. The traffic-returns-to-normal markets resolve Yes if PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average at or above the level in their rules for any date before the deadline; the weekly markets count the transits from Monday to Sunday.

PortWatch publishes a few days behind and revises recent days, so the latest numbers on this page can move. The markets' rules say which revisions count.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.