Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 35 points from 40% when the market opened on 9 Jul 2026.
Across the 107 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 9 Jul 2026 and the lowest 3% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.2%; a month before, 6.6%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 8% on 10 Jul 2026.
November ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?”. No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 leads at 88.5%; December is at 6.8%.
$95.45 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.85K since listing. The order book holds $33.38K, with a 4.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 457 trades, $456.77 bought Yes and $5.68K bought No.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 6.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 12.7K. Ten wallets hold 93.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 40.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.69K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 6.23K |
| sqsb | Yes | 1.48K |
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114
| Jade Lynx 708E |
| Yes |
| 771.15 |
| rgess | Yes | 610.44 |
| young4h | Yes | 555.7 |
| haouibao | Yes | 505 |
| donthackme | Yes | 368.99 |
| AlphaGooo | Yes | 330.97 |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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