Analytics
Yes is at 18%, down 34 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 27 Aug 2026.
Across the 61 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 27 Aug 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28%; a month before, 27.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 33% on 28 Aug 2026.
US is the favourite of the 8 outcomes in “Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?”, ahead of UK at 17.5%.
$8.82K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $29.35K since listing. The order book holds $2.39K, with a 10.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 196 trades, $2.47K bought Yes and $4.86K bought No; the largest was a $2.83K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Nadmi with 2K shares; the largest No position is Mr-Krabs with 3K. Ten wallets hold 93.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 61 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 51.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 18.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mr-Krabs | No | 3.03K |
| Nadmi | Yes | 2.05K |
| Luminous-Insectarium | No | 1.21K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31
| 2B9S |
| Yes |
| 1.17K |
| Te0n2 | No | 774.7 |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 756.52 |
| Perypery | Yes | 500 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 389.63 |
| alexludoman | No | 337.59 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 159.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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