Analytics
Yes is at 14.5%, down 14 points from 28% when the market opened on 17 Dec 2025.
Across the 304 daily closes on record from 17 Dec 2025 to 27 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 21 Feb 2026 and the lowest 9% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 44% on 31 Dec 2025.
$20.99 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $27.25K since listing. The order book holds $12.34K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Azure Atlas 5EA1 with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is thoodr with 2.4K. Ten wallets hold 77.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 9:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 304 points, 17 Dec 2025 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2025 | 28.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thoodr | No | 2.41K |
| Azure Atlas 5EA1 | Yes | 1.87K |
| elmcap2 | No | 1.87K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/supreme-court-vacancy-in-2026
| tinman2 |
| Yes |
| 1.67K |
| Milton..Friedman | No | 1.08K |
| cambridgeisaac | Yes | 1.01K |
| Entire-Trafficker | Yes | 892.46 |
| Optimus- | No | 774.94 |
| SlavaUkraini | Yes | 751.06 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 583 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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