Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 28 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 20 Feb 2026.
Across the 219 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (33 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 5 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 8 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.5%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 27.5% on 1 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?”.
$58.45K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.23M since listing. The order book holds $88.24K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.51K bought Yes and $67.4K bought No; the largest was a $34.62K buy of No at 79.2¢.
The largest Yes position is tetrose with 99.6K shares; the largest No position is ImJustKen with 162.2K. Ten wallets hold 67.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 219 points, 20 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | 43.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 162.25K |
| tetrose | Yes | 99.56K |
| Arbguy |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by
| Yes |
| 49.96K |
| thoodr | No | 46.93K |
| Erasmus. | Yes | 36.83K |
| Frozen-Spine-Boysenberry | Yes | 36.22K |
| elmcap2 | No | 24.52K |
| Giannis2026 | Yes | 15K |
| forever123 | No | 13.35K |
| TheRealWarMonger | No | 9.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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