Analytics
Yes is at 48%, down 15 points from 62.5% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 114 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 62.5% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 28.5% on 10 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 44.5%; a month before, 40.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 58.5% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?”.
$10.35K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $179.13K since listing. The order book holds $32.79K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.46K bought Yes and $21.36K bought No; the largest was a $1.83K buy of No at 57.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 15.5K shares; the largest No position is Parz1vaI with 11K. Ten wallets hold 79.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 62.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 15.47K |
| Parz1vaI | No | 10.99K |
| cambridgeisaac |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by
| No |
| 3.59K |
| GrokEnjoyer | Yes | 2.22K |
| cmarx | No | 2.11K |
| 881112 | No | 2.03K |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357 | Yes | 2K |
| Tenebrus7 | No | 1.94K |
| Alarming-Singer | No | 1.77K |
| realbengvir | Yes | 1.59K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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