Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, down 40 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 89 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83% on 2 Aug 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 14.5% on 19 Aug 2026.
Thom Tillis is the favourite of the 15 outcomes in “Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?”, ahead of Kirsten Gillibrand at 9%.
$26.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $7.55K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 369 trades, $1.83K bought Yes and $3.71K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Dr.PNL with 169 shares; the largest No position is BobMenendez with 356. Ten wallets hold 78.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 89 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BobMenendez | No | 356.44 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 181.83 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 169.4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-for-the-clarity-act-20260729190926658
3 more outcomes, none above 5.2%.
| SiliconBets |
| No |
| 150 |
| pantomime | Yes | 116 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 102 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 88.74 |
| qqqmmmccc | No | 85 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 71 |
| frontiertrade | Yes | 60 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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