Analytics
Yes is at 1.6%, down 7.4 points from 9% when the market opened on 5 May 2026.
Across the 174 daily closes on record from 5 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 9% on 5 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.1%; a month before, 2.8%. Its largest one-day move was 8.4 points down, to 0.6% on 6 May 2026.
Marco Rubio ranks fifth of the 16 outcomes in “Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?”. Delcy Rodríguez leads at 95%; María Corina Machado is at 3.1%.
$235.81 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.95K since listing. The order book holds $16.82K, with a 2.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 152 trades, $42.67 bought Yes and $2.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is archaic with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4K. Ten wallets hold 92.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 62 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 174 points, 5 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 May 2026 | 9.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.01K |
| archaic | Yes | 1.91K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 480.01 |
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| donthackme |
| Yes |
| 183.51 |
| Elias.Thornwell | Yes | 172.35 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 159.08 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 150 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 129.95 |
| balthazar | Yes | 123.93 |
| Gorea | Yes | 104.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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