Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Maduro guilty of all counts?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2028 UTC. As of Sep 27, 11:22 PM UTC, Yes trades at 23.0¢, a 23.0% implied chance, $14.41 traded in the last 24 hours, $107.82 resting in the order book, a 14.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 243 daily price points from Jan 5, 2026 UTC to Sep 27, 2026 UTC (Yes between 7.5% and 57.0%); 212 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 64.6% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 276 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 243 points · 5 Jan 2026 – 27 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 57.0% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 23.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Noupeinnouguein | No | 1.73K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 554.97 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl). If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count. The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/maduro-guilty-of-all-counts
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Yes |
| 544.95 |
| Razirback | Yes | 391.45 |
| Serega-pro | No | 384.62 |
| rocky42018 | Yes | 297.52 |
| Violet Comet 3E32 | No | 294.85 |
| Solar Beacon D366 | Yes | 283.03 |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 264.84 |
| MEPP | No | 193.26 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
