Analytics
Yes is at 3.6%, down 21 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 267 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 11 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.5%; a month before, 2.9%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 9.5% on 26 Jan 2026.
$154.23 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $274.67K since listing. The order book holds $68.53K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $731.34 bought Yes and $22.07K bought No; the largest was a $8.43K buy of No at 96.5¢.
The largest Yes position is aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa1 with 11.6K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 25.6K. Ten wallets hold 87.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 267 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 24.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFK | No | 25.62K |
| aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa1 | Yes | 11.57K |
| notssf3 | Yes | 10K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025
| Threadbare-Signal |
| Yes |
| 6.9K |
| CP-directional | No | 4.41K |
| chungguskhan | Yes | 4.24K |
| elmcap2 | No | 2K |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 1K |
| Slowroasted | No | 750 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 749.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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