Analytics
Yes is at 2.4%, down 1.2 points from 3.6% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 272 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 5.6% on 13 May 2026 and the lowest 2% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 2.2%.
$81.2 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $399.6K since listing. The order book holds $61.57K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $454.96 bought Yes and $25.08K bought No; the largest was a $6.25K buy of No at 97.2¢.
The largest Yes position is wcwd with 19K shares; the largest No position is Solar Raven A90C with 19.6K. Ten wallets hold 69.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 272 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 3.6% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 19.64K |
| wcwd | Yes | 18.99K |
| Slowroasted | No | 2.18K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-venezuela-become-51st-state
| Unfolded-Antiquity |
| Yes |
| 1.09K |
| MissWonderfun | Yes | 1.02K |
| addicts | Yes | 1K |
| armand | No | 1K |
| vacoolaaa | No | 976.68 |
| Moribundus | No | 910.18 |
| Boromir1 | Yes | 900 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
