Analytics
Yes is at 99.4%, up 49 points from 50% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
Across the 47 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 27 Sep 2026 and the lowest 50% on 4 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 97.5%; a month before, 100%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 77% on 5 Sep 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”.
$15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $65.05K since listing. The order book holds $1.93K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 76 trades, $10.69K bought Yes and $2.32K bought No; the largest was a $3.61K buy of Yes at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is fElon with 437 shares; the largest No position is buoys with 300. Ten wallets hold 89% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 10:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 99.4% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026
| xtxpleasecallme |
| No |
| 159.45 |
| TheBigMuscle | Yes | 130 |
| Royal Vector AF18 | No | 121.88 |
| Hakei. | No | 96 |
| i.newton | Yes | 47.88 |
| Numitus1994 | No | 43.29 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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