
Yes is at 33%, down 19 points from 52% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 135 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 13 Jun 2026 and the lowest 11% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11%; a month before, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 51% on 14 Jun 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?”.
$5.07K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $365.86, with a 34.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 79 trades, $281.91 bought Yes and $740.36 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 520 shares; the largest No position is buoys with 635. Ten wallets hold 96.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 135 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 52.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 33.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| buoys | No | 634.98 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 520.08 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 137 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/screwworm-national-emergency-declared-byptptpt-20260609150610739
| 0x49F206 |
| No |
| 109.72 |
| BASSATS01 | Yes | 79.01 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 43.63 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 40 |
| Dapsy | No | 40 |
| STCM | No | 28.17 |
| df4d8fa4sdf5 | Yes | 17.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page