Analytics
Yes is at 1.8%, down 4.3 points from 6% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
The high was 6% on 6 Oct 2026 and the low 1.8% on 21 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.1%.
$324.05 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $494.75K since listing. The order book holds $101.66K, with a 0.10% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $12.76K bought Yes and $48.05K bought No; the largest was a $16.92K sell of No at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is hugedic with 54.7K shares; the largest No position is forinnerpsandr1x11222 with 47.2K. Ten wallets hold 83.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 73 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 21, 12:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 6.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 1.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hugedic | Yes | 54.73K |
| forinnerpsandr1x11222 | No | 47.22K |
| tetrase | No | 35.43K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/plague-pandemic-in-2026
| DOG-UndressedVersion |
| Yes |
| 14.49K |
| Silver Kestrel 657E | Yes | 13.31K |
| realbengvir | No | 13K |
| pvt214 | Yes | 10.91K |
| debased | No | 8.89K |
| occasionalAwareness | No | 8.25K |
| gavkwang | Yes | 5.6K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
