Analytics
Yes is at 91.1%, up 47 points from 44% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.8% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 44% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 97.2%. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 94% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?”.
$65 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.91K since listing. The order book holds $398.97, with a 11.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 78 trades, $1.31K bought Yes and $350 bought No.
The largest Yes position is fElon with 1K shares; the largest No position is Bold Kestrel 2ACC with 418. Ten wallets hold 92.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 5:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 44.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 91.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fElon | Yes | 1.04K |
| Bold Kestrel 2ACC | No | 417.92 |
| hfv | No | 393 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-uptspt-by-october-31-20260928t160000000z
| vaniyokk |
| No |
| 270.99 |
| Y4n4pol | Yes | 236 |
| LosingEverything12312312323123 | Yes | 150 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 109.22 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 86.93 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 74.09 |
| S888 | No | 66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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