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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? | No | 245.49 | $0.649 | $237.76 | +$78.35 |
 Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 21 | $0.070 | $1.47 | 26m ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 349.01 |
| $0.570 |
| $225.11 |
| +$26.15 |
 Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? | No | 168.6 | $0.923 | $166.66 | +$11.04 |
 Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | No | 388.67 | $0.375 | $145.75 | -$0.05 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | No | 161.13 | $0.691 | $136.96 | +$25.56 |
 Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | No | 138 | $0.950 | $130.62 | -$0.48 |
 Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31? | Yes | 133 | $0.750 | $124.36 | +$24.55 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | No | 166.02 | $0.694 | $115.38 | +$0.1 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 131.34 | $0.574 | $110.98 | +$35.62 |
 Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 115.5 | $0.841 | $109.09 | +$11.96 |
 Iran nuclear test before 2027? | No | 113.61 | $0.848 | $108.84 | +$12.47 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? | No | 123.45 | $0.837 | $108.57 | +$5.22 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? | Yes | 249.48 | $0.251 | $104.78 | +$42.06 |
 Will Trump nationalize elections? | No | 105.53 | $0.686 | $97.62 | +$25.19 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | No | 108.71 | $0.645 | $92.95 | +$22.85 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | No | 95.98 | $0.940 | $90.41 | +$0.15 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 153 | $0.690 | $88.13 | -$17.42 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 119 | $0.703 | $87.47 | +$3.77 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | No | 90 | $0.903 | $80.06 | -$1.2 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: Obama | Nothing | 82.54 | $0.809 | $77.22 | +$10.41 |
 Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | No | 81.33 | $0.925 | $75.64 | +$0.41 |
 Blue wave in 2026? | Yes | 89.11 | $0.724 | $72.18 | +$7.62 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | 155.49 | $0.499 | $70.75 | -$6.89 |
 Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30? | Yes | 70.88 | $0.699 | $70.03 | +$20.5 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | No | 80 | $0.692 | $69.2 | +$13.8 |
| buy |
| 16 |
| $0.944 |
| $15.1 |
| 33m ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?No | buy | 18 | $0.460 | $8.28 | 1h ago |
 Will the Fed Pause–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes | buy | 93.4 | $0.070 | $6.53 | 1h ago |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes | buy | 28.27 | $0.070 | $1.98 | 1h ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.640 | $5.12 | 1h ago |
 Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by September 30?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.770 | $3.85 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?No | buy | 12.99 | $0.790 | $10.26 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.125T by September 30?No | buy | 12.99 | $0.850 | $11.04 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?No | sell | 16 | $0.730 | $11.68 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by September 30?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.770 | $7.7 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?No | buy | 16 | $0.740 | $11.84 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?Yes | sell | 38.25 | $0.260 | $9.95 | 2h ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Yes | sell | 9 | $0.640 | $5.76 | 4h ago |
 Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.099 | $0.99 | 4h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 6 | $0.900 | $5.4 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | sell | 23 | $0.650 | $14.95 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 10 | $0.690 | $6.9 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 11 | $0.710 | $7.81 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 12 | $0.710 | $8.52 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 12 | $0.710 | $8.52 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?No | buy | 17.41 | $0.400 | $6.96 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?No | buy | 125 | $0.419 | $52.4 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?No | buy | 192 | $0.357 | $68.48 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 89.62 | $0.719 | $64.42 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Yes | sell | 44 | $0.320 | $14.08 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 22.76 | $0.910 | $20.71 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 96 | $0.090 | $8.64 | 14h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 44 | $0.370 | $16.28 | 15h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 96 | $0.100 | $9.6 | 15h ago |
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.740 | $14.8 | 15h ago |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.320 | $16 | 15h ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 16 | $0.320 | $5.12 | 15h ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 15 | $0.770 | $11.55 | 15h ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 15 | $0.770 | $11.55 | 15h ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.600 | $6 | 15h ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 20 | $0.250 | $5 | 15h ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes | sell | 7.88 | $0.590 | $4.65 | 16h ago |
 Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.56 | $0.040 | $0.5 | 16h ago |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 16.75 | $0.040 | $0.67 | 16h ago |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 52.09 | $0.920 | $47.92 | 16h ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 42 | $0.090 | $3.78 | 16h ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.039 | $3.12 | 16h ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.350 | $5.25 | 18h ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.150 | $1.8 | 18h ago |
 Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.010 | $0.5 | 19h ago |
| Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Yes | buy | 125.54 | $0.008 | $1 | 19h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?Yes | sell | 12.75 | $0.260 | $3.32 | 19h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by September 30?Yes | buy | 101 | $0.044 | $4.44 | 19h ago |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?Yes | buy | 51 | $0.270 | $13.77 | 19h ago |