Analytics
Yes is at 2%, down 17 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.4%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 9% on 7 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Plague declared public health emergency by...?”.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.75K since listing. The order book holds $5.64K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 137 trades, $230.55 bought Yes and $3.81K bought No; the largest was a $1.25K buy of No at 89.3¢.
The largest Yes position is MtnMark with 715 shares; the largest No position is AlexiosV with 859. Ten wallets hold 77% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 9:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 2.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-pneumonic-plague-declared-public-health-emergency-byptptpt
| tetrase |
| No |
| 450.12 |
| kayps | Yes | 318.9 |
| Rndntz | Yes | 300 |
| oleg55 | Yes | 255 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 201.98 |
| Real-Advertisement | No | 200 |
| Alegrandebig | No | 159.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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