Analytics
Yes is at 37%, down 17 points from 54% when the market opened on 23 May 2026.
Across the 153 daily closes on record from 23 May 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80% on 26 Jun 2026 and the lowest 25% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.5%; a month before, 47.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 35.5% on 14 Sep 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?”.
$5.36K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.11K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is planetnine with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is resfeber with 585. Ten wallets hold 86.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 153 points, 23 May 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | 54.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 36.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| planetnine | Yes | 1.59K |
| resfeber | No | 584.8 |
| Cobalt Ledger 30C9 | Yes | 360.86 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026
| KrdRL |
| No |
| 227.5 |
| tylerpredict | No | 196.21 |
| Leclerc04 | No | 191.96 |
| Weak-Threshold | No | 187 |
| Oliver1978 | No | 185 |
| cowcat | No | 136 |
| BOOST250 | No | 112.61 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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