Analytics
Yes is at 0.4%, down 49 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 27 Mar 2026.
Across the 204 daily closes on record from 27 Mar 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 27 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.6%; a month before, 2.6%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 8% on 29 Apr 2026.
Stephen Vogt ranks third of the 16 outcomes in “MLB: AL Manager of the Year”. Will Venable leads at 90%; Kevin Cash is at 9.3%.
$3.34K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.76K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 98 trades, $46.14 bought Yes and $885.4 bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 572 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.6K. Ten wallets hold 84.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 204 points, 27 Mar 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2026 | 49.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.55K |
| balthazar | Yes | 571.61 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 503.36 |
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mlb-al-manager-of-the-year
4 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| plainfolder | Yes | 449.99 |
| lastchanceu | Yes | 336.81 |
| Lucerys | Yes | 335.84 |
| Violet Maven 063C | No | 184.7 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 134.81 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 134 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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