Analytics
Yes is at 78%, down 7 points from 85% when the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 27 Oct 2026, the highest close was 85% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 78% on 27 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 78% on 27 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Gemini Carbon released by...?”.
$2.77K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.45K since listing. The order book holds $1.63K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 132 trades, $1.67K bought Yes and $295.18 bought No.
The largest Yes position is NoTeacher with 410 shares; the largest No position is SnapElectionAvoider with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 90.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 10:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 75%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 85.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 78.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 1.15K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 593.66 |
| NoTeacher | Yes | 409.61 |
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing:
| edge999 | Yes | 343 |
| BAO95889 | Yes | 327.61 |
| flywheelpoly | Yes | 317.51 |
| rocky42016 | No | 133 |
| chessplayer | Yes | 88.1 |
| Outrageous-Sauerkraut | Yes | 80 |
| BLISS9457 | Yes | 64.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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