Analytics
Yes is at 58.6%, up 50 points from 8.3% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 5 Nov 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.7% on 3 Nov 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.4%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 42.1% on 4 Nov 2026.
November 2–November 8 is the favourite of the 14 outcomes in “When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?”, ahead of November 9–November 15 at 35.5%.
$4.68K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $23.37K since listing. The order book holds $3.87K, with a 1.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.28K bought Yes and $3.61K bought No.
The largest Yes position is sergeisol with 928 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 69.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 8.3% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 58.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.89K |
| Fair-Tan | No | 1.89K |
| sergeisol | Yes | 928.43 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-astra-6pt1-be-released-20261020
2 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| nehocsrizyvqevuidiavaoca |
| Yes |
| 784.46 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 722.84 |
| molodoyy | Yes | 534.37 |
| Martinus- | No | 521.25 |
| BlindestMonk | Yes | 498.53 |
| MrBauer | Yes | 371.75 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 296.54 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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